Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T07:29:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c7c…44e1 politics 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 185d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$52 (-0%) realized −$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%3W / 15L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,138per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$55
economics 36% +$1
other 5% −$2
sports 4% +$4
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 2 -0.3% -9.8% 50% 0% -9.9%
all 18 -0.9% -10.3% 17% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$976) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses3 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)18 / 19
History coverage185d
Avg bet$1,138
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Jun 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 06 $163 −$1 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 25 $928 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? Feb 14 $929 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Feb 12 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 10 $931 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 08 $932 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 06 $1,911 −$2 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $929 +$4 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 02 $930 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 31 $268 −$38 -14%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 29 $969 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $971 −$1 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 23 $976 −$6 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 21 $977 −$1 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 19 $6,844 +$2 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $979 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $45 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $40 2d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 51d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 59d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $61 88d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $37 88d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $98 90d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $63 93d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $18 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $4 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $8 95d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 95d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $927 121d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $928 124d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $928 132d
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $929 133d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $929 134d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $930 135d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $930 136d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $931 137d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.58 · official $44.58 (match) · 98 history records