Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:34:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c7c…39ba crypto 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$135 (+11%) realized +$135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate56%28W / 22L
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day16.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$98
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 50 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 46% -2.2%
≤30d 50 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 46% -2.2%
≤90d 50 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 46% -2.2%
all 50 +0.7% -8.9% 56% 46% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 46% -2.2%
10% -17.6% 38% -11.5%
15% -25.6% 26% -20.1%
20% -32.9% 16% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$10 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses28 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day16.9
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 19 $31 +$19 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $48 −$16 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 19 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$48 +448%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 19 $28 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 19 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $15 +$28 +192%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $104 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$26 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$16 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10AM ET Jun 19 $52 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $37 +$16 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8PM ET Jun 19 $61 +$11 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 19 $32 −$21 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 19 $11 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 18 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $11 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$4 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $28 +$13 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $26 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 15 $27 +$10 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$16 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $9 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $62 +$47 +75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $11 −$3 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $21 +$6 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $53 +$7 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 15 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $47 −$5 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$14 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $58 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 14 $59 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $50 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $15 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $27 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $16 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET SELL Up 37¢ $58 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 26¢ $29 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $19 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $21 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $43 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $15 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $114 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $104 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $24 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $37 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $21 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $21 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 101 history records