Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:06:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4C 0x4c7d…c6fb sports 258 markets active 22h ago coverage 933d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$21 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate35%83W / 156L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$8
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$17
sports 33% +$36
politics 20% −$25
economics 6% −$8
crypto 1% −$16
world 1% −$5
tech 1% +$2
finance 0% −$4
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +35.2% +22.3% 61% 39% +0.6%
≤30d 79 -2.7% -12.0% 44% 35% -24.2%
≤90d 80 -1.4% -10.8% 45% 36% -14.6%
all 239 -0.1% -9.6% 35% 27% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 27% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 22% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 18% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 15% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

933d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized−$21
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses83 / 156
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions19
Markets (closed)239 / 258
History coverage933d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 239 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 46¢ 50¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Yes 39¢ 53¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+35%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? No 79¢ 100¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+26%)
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5) T1 65¢ 60¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-9%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 73¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+12%)
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+441%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 73¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will annual inflation be 3.7% in June? Yes 38¢ 27¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-54%)
Will Trump praise Allah again by June 30? Yes 28¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$1 (-62%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 56 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $6 $0 +2%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 19 $2 −$1 -34%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $1 +$9 +788%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 +$1 +61%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 −$2 -56%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 19 $6 −$4 -66%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 $0 +35%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $1 $0 +19%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +84%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $2 +$8 +416%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $1 +$1 +69%
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 +4%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 19 $6 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $1 $0 +2%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Bryson DeChambeau win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $1 $0 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 $0 +19%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $1 +$1 +102%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 19 $1 $0 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $8 $0 -3%
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $6 $0 +8%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Jun 19 $6 −$2 -41%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $4 +$11 +300%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$1 +18%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 17 $6 −$2 -24%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 −$1 -39%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -52%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 17 $1 $0 -27%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +10%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $1 $0 +22%
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by July 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 +$2 +28%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $6 +$3 +53%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +22%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Al Carns be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026 SELL Yes 1¢ $0 22h
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 51¢ $2 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 51¢ $0 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 63¢ $2 3d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 3d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 7¢ $0 5d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 5d
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 7¢ $1 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 62¢ $1 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 35¢ $2 5d
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 59¢ $1 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $1 5d
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? SELL No 14¢ $2 5d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 5d
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 6d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $1 6d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 84¢ $1 6d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 45¢ $1 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $1 6d
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 19¢ $2 6d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $1 6d
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $5 6d
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $6 6d
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $1 6d
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.29 · official $197.30 (match) · 605 history records