Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:45:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c80…7507 world 42 markets active 0h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$24 (-3%) realized −$24 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$5
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$1
politics 18% +$1
other 15% −$4
sports 12% −$20
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 38% 0% -8.3%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 33% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 13 -2.5% -11.8% 31% 0% -10.7%
all 42 -4.9% -13.9% 33% 2% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 2% -11.6%
10% -22.2% 0% -20.1%
15% -29.7% 0% -27.8%
20% -36.6% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage254d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $37 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 16 $41 +$1 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $38 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 +$2 +4%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $44 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $18 −$4 -20%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$1 +10%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $21 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 25 $24 −$8 -34%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Feb 01 $5 −$5 -94%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $47 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Oct 22 $22 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 22 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 18 $5 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 18 $2 $0 +14%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 17 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 14 $18 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 12 $18 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $19 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 11 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 National League Championsh Oct 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 10 $18 $0 +2%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Oct 10 $18 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 09 $1 $0 +2%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 09 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 08 $21 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 87¢ $5 2m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 87¢ $44 2m
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $45 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 28¢ $4 23h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 32¢ $4 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $36 27h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $45 36h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $36 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $41 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $38 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $38 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $10 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $9 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $22 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $44 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $44 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 16¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 145 history records