Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:18:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4C 0x4c82…df43 other 149 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$64 (-0%) realized −$64 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate3%5W / 143L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$322per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$25
politics 32% −$18
sports 13% −$24
tech 2% −$1
economics 2% −$1
world 1% −$1
culture 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 12 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 111 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 148 -3.8% -12.9% 3% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 3% -9.7%
10% -21.3% 2% -18.3%
15% -28.9% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.8% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$1 · ×8.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses5 / 143
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 149
History coverage134d
Avg bet$322
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 19 $39 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $267 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $519 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 28 $231 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 26 $204 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $231 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $208 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $264 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $250 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $488 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $255 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $224 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $273 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 18 $744 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $232 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 17 $285 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 16 $244 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 16 $310 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 16 $206 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $258 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $279 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 12 $229 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $470 −$1 -0%
Will Z.ai have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 11 $270 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 10 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $511 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $513 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $262 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $200 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $236 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $449 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $504 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $286 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 02 $259 $0 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $237 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $213 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $208 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 29 $283 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $524 −$1 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $728 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $35 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $32 7h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $32 10h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $28 14h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $28 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $35 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $37 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $37 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 4d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 18d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $46 22d
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $46 23d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $42 23d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $42 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $241 24d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $241 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $230 26d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $231 26d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $229 26d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $229 28d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $204 28d
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $204 29d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $231 29d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $231 30d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $208 30d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $208 30d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $247 30d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $247 31d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $264 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.99 · official $34.99 (match) · 480 history records