Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:28:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4c82…9728
sports · 932 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,746 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,697 · open +$74
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,412
Realized−$1,697
Unrealized+$74
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses579 / 336
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$392
Open positions14
Markets (closed)915 / 932
History coverage107d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 14 History 915 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days+$837
14 days+$319
30 days+$701
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Vitality 79¢ 90¢ $948 $1,074 +$126 (+13%)
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 37¢ 38¢ $109 $112 +$3 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 46¢ 100¢ $46 $100 +$54 (+117%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 49¢ 48¢ $49 $48 −$0 (-1%)
Will Legacy qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? No 89¢ 75¢ $27 $22 −$4 (-16%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 28¢ $3 $18 +$15 (+470%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 8¢ $9 $15 +$5 (+59%)
Will Natus Vincere win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+43%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? No 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Over $50M committed to the ALIGN public sale? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-88%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 MOUZ 59¢ 0¢ $118 $0 −$118 (-100%)
Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Over 30¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner B8 36¢ 0¢ $36 $0 −$36 (-100%)
Will MIBR win CS Asia Championships 2026? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 35¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Recife Playoffs BESTIA 77¢ 0¢ $284 $0 −$284 (-100%)
Will Astralis win PGL Bucharest 2026? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? No 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will PARIVISION win PGL Bucharest 2026? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 10? No 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 10? No 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 TYLOO 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $65 +$35 +54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $75 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $49 −$49 -100%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $28 +$2 +8%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $70 +$30 +43%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $790 +$210 +27%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $53 +$47 +89%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$16 +450%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $696 +$103 +15%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $243 −$243 -100%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $166 −$47 -28%
Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $188 +$62 +33%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $39 −$39 -100%
Will s1zzi have the most AWP kills at IEM Cologne Major 2026 Jun 13 $49 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $131 −$76 -58%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $36 −$36 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $52 −$52 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $8 +$12 +163%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 +$4 +70%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $190 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $148 +$47 +32%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $218 +$92 +42%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $97 +$3 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $113 −$112 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $91 +$9 +10%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $249 +$35 +14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $156 +$21 +14%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $302 +$84 +28%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $45 +$60 +133%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$16 +455%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $372 +$27 +7%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $47 −$47 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $17 $0 -1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $53 +$47 +88%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 +$6 +133%
Will Vitality drop from #1 in the VRS rankings by June 30? Jun 12 $498 +$32 +6%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $72 +$28 +39%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $293 +$57 +19%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $35 −$35 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $113 +$7 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 85% −$1,861
crypto 6% +$56
weather 5% −$7
other 4% +$278
world 0% −$15
culture 0% −$9
politics 0% −$63
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 79¢ $948 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 99¢ $200 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 93¢ $8 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 93¢ $93 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 93¢ $66 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 93¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 93¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Monte 50¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 20¢ $20 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $113 1h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 59¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $41 2h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $4 2h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 49¢ $49 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 39¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 39¢ $71 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 39¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 18¢ $18 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 2¢ $10 4h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY MOUZ 49¢ $49 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands SELL Netherlands 31¢ $30 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 46¢ $46 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 28¢ $27 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 28¢ $1 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 3¢ $21 6h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14 BUY 3¢ $10 6h
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $57 6h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $1 10h
Australia vs. Türkiye: Türkiye O/U 0.5 BUY Over 30¢ $2 10h
Will 9z qualify to the IEM Cologne 2026 playoffs? BUY No 25¢ $25 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 -8.1% -16.8% 53% 38% -1.3%
≤30d 309 +2.7% -7.0% 56% 31% -6.4%
≤90d 814 +0.7% -8.9% 62% 31% -14.6%
all 915 +2.7% -7.1% 63% 33% -13.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 33% -13.9%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 18% -22.1%
15% -24.1% 14% -29.6%
20% -31.5% 10% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,411.77 · official $1,450.31 · 3500 history records