Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:43:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c86…9784 politics 48 markets active 5d ago coverage 397d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$2,557 (+44%) realized +$2,557 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%21W / 27L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$68
14 days+$72
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 67% +$1,487
other 25% +$949
crypto 4% +$115
tech 3% −$17
world 1% −$21
sports 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -6.0% -14.9% 36% 36% +4.8%
≤30d 12 +1.7% -8.0% 42% 42% +5.4%
≤90d 18 -5.2% -14.2% 39% 39% -12.4%
all 48 +13.6% +2.7% 44% 40% +30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 40% +30.3%
10% -7.1% 38% +17.8%
15% -16.1% 31% +6.4%
20% -24.3% 21% -4.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$14 · ×9.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×7.74 per $1 lost it wins $7.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

397d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,557
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses21 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)48 / 48
History coverage397d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 48 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? Jun 11 $41 −$18 -45%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 11 $13 −$4 -31%
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? Jun 11 $27 −$11 -42%
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$12 -63%
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romania Jun 11 $40 −$4 -11%
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $53 +$11 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $103 +$72 +70%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 11 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? Jun 10 $6 +$7 +107%
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian Jun 07 $4 +$4 +86%
Will Anthropic provide Mythos to the US government by April 30, 2026? May 09 $13 −$13 -100%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 24 $38 +$15 +38%
Romanian PM Bolojan out by December 31? Apr 24 $401 −$80 -20%
Will Anca Alexandrescu get between 10% and 15% of the vote in the Buch Apr 18 $7 +$4 +53%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025? Apr 18 $54 −$20 -37%
Will Cătălin Drulă get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Buchares Apr 18 $19 −$9 -48%
Will Catalin Drula finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-elect Dec 07 $35 −$31 -88%
Will Catalin Drula be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 07 $1,943 −$27 -1%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 19 $256 +$2 +1%
UFC 322: Makhachev vs. Della Maddalena (Welterweight, Main Card) Nov 16 $11 +$4 +35%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 14 $6 −$1 -16%
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025? Nov 14 $4 +$2 +40%
Will Ciprian Ciucu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Nov 09 $151 −$3 -2%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Oct 21 $9 +$9 +104%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Oct 21 $24 +$1 +4%
Romanian politician Georgescu guilty in 2025? Oct 21 $6 −$2 -32%
Will Nicușor Dan win by more than 12%? Oct 21 $27 −$9 -33%
Will Hadi Choopan win Mr. Olympia 2025? Oct 21 $8 −$4 -50%
OpenAI social app in 2025? Oct 21 $10 −$10 -100%
US government shutdown by October 1? Oct 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? Oct 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Greta Thunberg arrested by October 15? Oct 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Oct 21 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 21 $7 +$3 +43%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Oct 21 $6 +$21 +331%
Oliveira vs. Gamrot Oct 12 $5 +$5 +104%
Ankalaev vs. Pereira Oct 05 $7 +$13 +203%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in June? Jun 19 $17 −$2 -12%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by June 30? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -5%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Anca Dragu? Jun 19 $36 −$10 -29%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent? Jun 19 $5 +$1 +30%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Ilie Bolojan? Jun 12 $225 −$50 -22%
Will Nicușor Dan win the Romanian presidential election? May 19 $818 +$1,588 +194%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 6–12%? May 18 $292 +$784 +269%
Will Nicușor Dan win by 0–6%? May 18 $666 +$273 +41%
Will George Simion win the Romanian presidential election? May 17 $147 +$56 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 4d
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $6 4d
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 4d
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 4d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $7 4d
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romania SELL No 37¢ $35 4d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 4d
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $36 4d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 60¢ $139 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $103 4d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc SELL No 40¢ $20 4d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? SELL Yes 4¢ $11 5d
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian SELL No 80¢ $4 8d
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian SELL No 80¢ $4 8d
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $20 34d
Will Bryan Johnson have sex again by May 31? BUY No 47¢ $6 34d
Will the National Liberal Party (PNL) be included in the next Romanian BUY No 42¢ $4 34d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc BUY No 43¢ $22 34d
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? BUY Yes 21¢ $13 34d
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $28 36d
Will the Social Democratic Party (PSD) be included in the next Romania BUY No 40¢ $40 37d
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 35¢ $53 37d
Romanian parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 37d
Will Dominic Fritz be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 37d
Will Ilie Bolojan be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 390 history records