Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:12:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c86…6993 other 170 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account⚠ Covers last 6d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (555 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$196,732 (+86%) realized +$194,239 · open +$2,493
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate79%118W / 31L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,341per market
Trades / day555.4pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit14%portable
Net worth$25,818now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$10,131
crypto 5% +$790
sports 3% −$1,120
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (555 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 149 +3.9% -6.0% 79% 32% -6.2%
≤30d 149 +3.9% -6.0% 79% 32% -6.2%
≤90d 149 +3.9% -6.0% 79% 32% -6.2%
all 149 +3.9% -6.0% 79% 32% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover555.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 32% -6.2%
10% -15.0% 15% -15.2%
15% ← realistic here -23.2% 10% -23.4%
20% -30.7% 8% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$1,760) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$731 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$25,818
Realized+$194,239
Unrealized+$2,493
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses118 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions70
Markets (closed)149 / 170
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$1,341
Trades / day555.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit14%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 70 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 72¢ 96¢ $6,699 $8,841 +$2,142 (+32%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? No 94¢ 92¢ $3,748 $3,666 −$82 (-2%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? No 83¢ 80¢ $3,072 $2,980 −$93 (-3%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? No 76¢ 73¢ $2,733 $2,625 −$108 (-4%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 20¢ $810 $988 +$178 (+22%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 14¢ 60¢ $212 $907 +$694 (+327%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? No 89¢ 83¢ $935 $876 −$60 (-6%)
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals No 69¢ 85¢ $630 $774 +$144 (+23%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 14¢ $471 $683 +$211 (+45%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 13¢ $295 $627 +$333 (+113%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 2 Curaçao? No 98¢ 99¢ $490 $493 +$3 (+1%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 24¢ $1,033 $487 −$546 (-53%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $197 $297 +$100 (+51%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $285 $268 −$18 (-6%)
Enner Valencia: 1+ goals No 43¢ 57¢ $126 $167 +$41 (+33%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $100 $160 +$60 (+60%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 16¢ $33 $156 +$123 (+373%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 3 Curaçao? No 100¢ 100¢ $149 $149 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 26¢ 27¢ $130 $135 +$5 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $130 $134 +$4 (+3%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 85¢ $50 $85 +$35 (+70%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $81 $78 −$4 (-5%)
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $40 $49 +$9 (+24%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $35 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $51 $28 −$24 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $2,531 +$673 +27%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $217 +$146 +67%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $268 +$23 +9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $480 +$3,520 +733%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $3,520 +$480 +14%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $950 +$50 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $1,902 +$98 +5%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $1,948 +$52 +3%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Sweden? Jun 20 $922 +$69 +8%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $1,074 +$26 +2%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,950 +$1,050 +27%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $990 +$10 +1%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $19 +$6 +34%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 20 $3 +$2 +46%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 20 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,040 −$2,040 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $1,283 +$143 +11%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $1,075 +$19 +2%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $218 +$3 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $828 +$26 +3%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 20 $338 +$50 +15%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $1,780 +$193 +11%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Morocco? Jun 20 $938 +$48 +5%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $1,127 +$57 +5%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $890 +$110 +12%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $602 +$18 +3%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $1,780 +$220 +12%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $1,860 +$140 +8%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Australia? Jun 19 $4,195 +$146 +4%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $3,643 +$44 +1%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $985 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Scotland 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $21 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $984 +$2 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $3,480 +$40 +1%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 2 Morocco? Jun 19 $880 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco? Jun 19 $110 $0 +0%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia? Jun 19 $1,976 +$11 +0%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $502 −$502 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 South Africa? Jun 19 $1,720 −$1,720 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $894 −$594 -66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $570 +$30 +5%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $167 −$151 -90%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $30 +$4 +13%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 19 $63 −$36 -57%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa? Jun 18 $1,464 +$11 +1%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $1,145 +$30 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 18 $11,585 +$1,298 +11%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $940 +$60 +6%
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Jun 18 $940 +$60 +6%
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 18 $890 +$110 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 26¢ $130 2m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 94¢ $12 6m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? SELL No 76¢ $1 7m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 92¢ $992 8m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 8m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $115 9m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $3 9m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $74 9m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $3 9m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $31 9m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $15 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $32 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $6 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $92 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $80 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $57 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $15 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $17 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $158 10m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $24 11m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 93¢ $1,767 11m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $15 11m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $31 11m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $3 11m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $317 11m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $12 11m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $12 11m
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY No 76¢ $10 11m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $53 11m
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 92¢ $1,683 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25,818.11 · official $25,654.69 (match) · 3500 history records