Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c88…7ad4 crypto 42 markets active 6d ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$33 (-39%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate33%14W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$9
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% −$24
other 25% −$7
finance 5% −$3
world 4% $0
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-27.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -39.1% -44.9% 41% 41% -43.2%
≤30d 42 -20.1% -27.7% 33% 31% -47.6%
≤90d 42 -20.1% -27.7% 33% 31% -47.6%
all 42 -20.1% -27.7% 33% 31% -47.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.7% 31% -47.6%
10% -34.7% 26% -52.6%
15% -41.0% 24% -57.2%
20% -46.8% 19% -61.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses14 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage12d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions (20 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $2 $0 +9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 02 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 0-19 Truth Social posts from June 2 to June 9, Jun 02 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 02 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +53%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 01 $1 $0 -7%
Will Montenegro win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $1 +$2 +212%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 01 $1 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1 +$7 +697%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2 $0 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 6d
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 4¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 46¢ $1 6d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 15d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 85¢ $9 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 15d
Will Wales win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 15d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 15d
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 15d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 2? BUY No 21¢ $1 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 15d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-02? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? SELL Yes 28¢ $0 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 68 history records