Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:08:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c88…c09b world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%12W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
politics 29% $0
other 23% −$2
tech 3% $0
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 50% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 31% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +0.2% -9.3% 31% 0% -9.3%
all 33 -0.7% -10.1% 36% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses12 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage476d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 23 $66 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $24 +$1 +2%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $17 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $18 $0 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $3 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $37 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $106 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $6 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $33 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $207 −$1 -1%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 07 $207 $0 +0%
Will Meta buy TikTok? Dec 12 $16 $0 +3%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 08 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 07 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon 250-499 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 04 $15 $0 -0%
Will Karoline Leavitt be out as White House Press Secretary in Trump's Apr 04 $16 $0 +0%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Apr 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Călin Georgescu advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Run Apr 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 01 $1 $0 -32%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 29 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by March 31? Mar 28 $15 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 375-399 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $15 $0 +2%
Will Doc Rivers make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 22 $16 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 88¢ $31 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $9 3h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 88¢ $22 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 13¢ $5 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $1 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $4 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $25 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $24 12h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $37 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $37 18h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $36 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $35 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $10 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $21 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $29 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $18 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $18 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 6d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $33 20d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $33 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $36 20d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $37 20d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $29 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $7 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $36 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 85 history records