Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c8a…f36a crypto 58 markets active 6d ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$78 (-18%) realized −$16 · open −$62
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate49%28W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day50.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$31
politics 18% −$62
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -28.1% -34.9% 50% 21% -30.3%
≤30d 57 -4.9% -14.0% 49% 39% -17.4%
≤90d 57 -4.9% -14.0% 49% 39% -17.4%
all 57 -4.9% -14.0% 49% 39% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 39% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 30% -25.3%
15% -29.7% 25% -32.5%
20% -36.6% 18% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses28 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage3d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day50.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $73 $10 −$62 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$4 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $9 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 10 $5 −$3 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 10 $6 −$3 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$5 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $6 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 09 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$3 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 09 $7 −$2 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 09 $11 +$3 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $9 −$5 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 09 $11 −$10 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$17 +324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 09 $5 +$4 +85%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 2¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 5d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 6¢ $50 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.49 · official $10.49 (match) · 163 history records