Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:58:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4c8b…89db crypto 740 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$466 (-7%) realized −$467 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate79%583W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day33.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$126
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.8% -7.0% 43% 29% -9.7%
≤30d 11 +1.8% -7.9% 45% 27% -9.4%
≤90d 739 -2.7% -11.9% 79% 50% -11.2%
all 739 -2.7% -11.9% 79% 50% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 50% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 23% -19.7%
15% -28.1% 10% -27.4%
20% -35.1% 5% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$7 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$467
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses583 / 156
Open positions1
Markets (closed)739 / 740
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$10
Trades / day33.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 739 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Down 78¢ 81¢ $22 $22 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $116 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $315 −$19 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $230 +$36 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $97 −$4 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $380 −$20 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $192 −$9 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $46 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $32 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 7? Jun 07 $46 −$4 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $69 +$11 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $40 −$4 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Mar 31 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Mar 31 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Mar 31 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Mar 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Mar 31 $5 +$2 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Mar 31 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Mar 31 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 31 $8 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 31 $8 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Mar 31 $8 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Mar 31 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 31 $4 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 31 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 31 $5 $0 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 20¢ $0 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 20¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 20¢ $0 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 18¢ $0 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 21¢ $0 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 22¢ $0 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 22¢ $0 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 22¢ $0 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 22¢ $0 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 24¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 78¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 79¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 17¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 16¢ $0 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 17¢ $0 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 17¢ $0 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 17¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 17¢ $0 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 17¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 17¢ $0 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 78¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 77¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 79¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 76¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 76¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 74¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 72¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 72¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 71¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.46 · official $22.46 (match) · 3500 history records