Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:24:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4C 0x4c8b…b282 crypto 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,760 (+28%) realized +$1,760 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day34.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% +$1,701
sports 12% +$13
crypto 1% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+26.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +39.7% +26.4% 71% 57% +16.9%
≤30d 14 +39.7% +26.4% 71% 57% +16.9%
≤90d 14 +39.7% +26.4% 71% 57% +16.9%
all 14 +39.7% +26.4% 71% 57% +16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +26.4% 57% +16.9%
10% ← realistic here +14.3% 50% +5.8%
15% +3.3% 50% -4.5%
20% -6.8% 43% -13.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +29% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +77% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$232 vs −$146 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.98 per $1 lost it wins $3.98
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,760
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day34.8
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +101%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $504 +$36 +7%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,036 +$1,449 +71%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $800 −$568 -71%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 17 $758 +$13 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $21 +$13 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$12 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,829 +$747 +41%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$37 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 88¢ $346 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $1 18m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 74¢ $193 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,429 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 90¢ $501 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $608 18h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 89¢ $771 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $33 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $10 19h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 82¢ $55 19h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 81¢ $101 19h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $602 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 15¢ $4 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,288 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 87¢ $1,288 21h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 47¢ $498 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 45 history records