Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T13:31:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4C 0x4c8e…42c7 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$45 (-9%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%23W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$28
14 days−$54
30 days−$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$47
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +23.1% +11.4% 70% 65% +8.6%
≤30d 31 +9.4% -1.0% 61% 58% -28.5%
≤90d 35 +9.0% -1.4% 66% 54% -17.9%
all 35 +9.0% -1.4% 66% 54% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.4% 54% -17.9%
10% -10.9% 37% -25.8%
15% -19.5% 34% -32.9%
20% -27.4% 26% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses23 / 12
Open positions0
Markets (closed)35 / 35
History coverage64d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 35 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$3 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$4 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$6 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 13 $8 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$8 +208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 07 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 07 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 07 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 07 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 07 $5 +$5 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Apr 14 $85 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Apr 14 $80 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Apr 14 $80 +$4 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $7 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $8 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $6 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $9 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $6 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $9 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $9 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $9 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $7 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $4 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $9 8d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records