Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T16:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c8e…b38f other 493 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 25d only
✗ bot/MM pace (127 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,235 (-5%) realized −$1,149 · open −$86
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate32%245W / 531L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day127.0pace
Fees−$84est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$363now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,271
7 days−$2,375
14 days−$2,938
30 days−$2,996
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$335
sports 25% +$1,289
weather 7% +$101
crypto 0% −$50
world 0% −$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (127 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 573 -2.2% -11.5% 28% 23% -17.8%
≤30d 776 +6.0% -4.1% 32% 23% -15.6%
≤90d 776 +6.0% -4.1% 32% 23% -15.6%
all 776 +6.0% -4.1% 32% 23% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 23% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 20% -23.7%
15% -21.6% 18% -31.1%
20% -29.3% 17% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +44% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$15 · ×1.37 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$363
Realized−$1,149
Unrealized−$86
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses245 / 531
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$84
Open positions21
Markets (closed)776 / 493
History coverage25d ⚠
Avg bet$48
Trades / day127.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 21 History 776 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $193 $166 −$27 (-14%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner FURIA 53¢ 100¢ $48 $91 +$43 (+88%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 70¢ 34¢ $95 $45 −$50 (-52%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? No 62¢ 94¢ $13 $19 +$6 (+52%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 43¢ 42¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-3%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? No 65¢ 100¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+53%)
Argentina vs. Austria: 2nd Half O/U 2.5 Under 81¢ 80¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $14 $2 −$12 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+150%)
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+16%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in July 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets in July 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 72¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes 25¢ 1¢ $23 $1 −$22 (-98%)
Will Elon Musk post 720-759 tweets in July 2026? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 42¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Aurora Gaming 40¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 479 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 20 $0 −$4 -80841%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on April 24? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -214%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 12? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on April 11? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on April 13 Jun 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 28? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Jun 20 $11 +$51 +470%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 12? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C on April 25? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 19°C on April 22? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026? Jun 20 $18 −$86 -472%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 10? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $0 −$3 -255330%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $0 −$2 -61440%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 10? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 20 $9 −$9 -102%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from February 12 to February 14, 2026 Jun 20 $1 −$10 -1181%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C or higher on April 12? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 26? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 2? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 20 $4 −$7 -164%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 20 $0 −$116 -3728445%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 18°C on April 17? Jun 20 $0 −$1 -1257%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 15? Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Ma Jun 20 $2 −$2 -114%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 60-61°F on May Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 20 $6 −$10 -178%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on April 26? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on April 21? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $0 +$41 +1873846%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 14? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 22? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on April 22? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -111%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on May 1? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on April 17 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 215-239 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 12? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ap Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C or higher on April 13? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C on April 25? Jun 20 $0 −$1 -1415%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? Jun 20 $27 −$78 -290%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 12? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on April 17 Jun 20 $1 −$1 -146%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Jun 20 $0 −$1 -6469%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 7 to March 9, 2026? Jun 20 $1 +$9 +1048%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 20 $0 −$51 -135576%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 47¢ $22 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 59¢ $27 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $17 2h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $2 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 61¢ $16 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 62¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 62¢ $6 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $15 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 64¢ $60 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $4 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 62¢ $3 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $6 2h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $3 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 2h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 80¢ $17 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 80¢ $61 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 81¢ $62 3h
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula BUY Pegula 69¢ $3 3h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 80¢ $4 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $2 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $2 3h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol BUY Adam Walton 96¢ $56 5h
Set 1 Winner: Walton vs Bondioli BUY Walton 100¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 40¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $2 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $362.57 · official $361.66 (match) · 3500 history records