Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:14:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c91…b7f4 other 418 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$136 (+9%) realized +$164 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate23%90W / 309L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day42.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$41now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$316
7 days+$316
14 days+$310
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$213
sports 23% −$76
crypto 10% −$36
politics 7% −$65
weather 2% −$18
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 +60.5% +45.2% 24% 22% +60.1%
≤30d 155 +1.8% -7.9% 25% 21% +8.4%
≤90d 399 +2.8% -7.0% 23% 20% -13.0%
all 399 +2.8% -7.0% 23% 20% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.0% 20% -13.0%
10% ← realistic here -15.9% 19% -21.3%
15% -24.0% 18% -28.9%
20% -31.5% 15% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$3 · ×3.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$41
Realized+$164
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses90 / 309
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions19
Markets (closed)399 / 418
History coverage44d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day42.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 399 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $9 $7 −$2 (-18%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week 1? Yes 11¢ 15¢ $4 $6 +$2 (+39%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $2 $5 +$2 (+87%)
Will Trump say "No No No" this week? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+125%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+50%)
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas Carlos Sanchez Jover 12¢ 35¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+192%)
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-10%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 50 million views on week 1? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $21 $2 −$19 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino Lorenzo Giustino 14¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 40 million views on week 1? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$2 (-83%)
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-96%)
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin Pierre Delage 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-96%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi Tomas Barrios 13¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$6 +541%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $13 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$17 +553%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$10 +311%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yu Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Ella Seidel Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will La Rochelle win? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$7 +365%
Will the match end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$30 +2881%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Jun 14 $2 +$18 +800%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $3 +$22 +707%
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
ITF Casablanca: Aran Teixido Garcia vs Luna Vujovic Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get less than 20 million views on day 1? Jun 14 $24 −$12 -51%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 Jun 14 $33 +$82 +244%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$134 +4240%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 37 million views on day 2 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week BUY Yes 11¢ $4 18m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Under 86¢ $7 19m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $6 19m
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 20¢ $9 24m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $13 24m
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 24m
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 59¢ $20 25m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 64¢ $13 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Royan: Carlos Sanchez Jover vs Alejandro Moro Canas BUY Carlos Sanchez Jover 12¢ $1 1h
Poznan: Maks Kasnikowski vs Lorenzo Giustino BUY Lorenzo Giustino 14¢ $1 1h
Royan: Pierre Delage vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Pierre Delage 13¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Tomas Barrios vs Benjamin Bonzi BUY Tomas Barrios 13¢ $1 1h
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Ognjen Milic 7¢ $1 1h
Nottingham 2: Jaime Faria vs Moez Echargui BUY Moez Echargui 1¢ $1 1h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Raluca Serban 4¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 13¢ $1 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 1h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 9¢ $3 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 37 and 39 million views on day 2 BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 38¢ $17 6h
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi BUY Malawi 7¢ $4 6h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $10 12h
Will MrBeast's next video get between 50 and 60 million views on week SELL Yes 19¢ $1 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.13 · official $41.13 (match) · 2169 history records