trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 5 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 40% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 11 | -7.3% | -16.2% | 36% | 0% | -10.0% |
| ≤90d | 15 | -6.6% | -15.5% | 33% | 0% | -11.2% |
| all | 24 | -6.5% | -15.4% | 54% | 0% | -11.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -15.4% | 0% | -11.0% |
| 10% | -23.5% | 0% | -19.5% |
| 15% | -30.9% | 0% | -27.3% |
| 20% | -37.7% | 0% | -34.4% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | No | 53¢ | 52¢ | $31 | $31 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | Jun 20 | $11 | $0 | +4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Jun 19 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? | Jun 19 | $31 | $0 | +0% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | Jun 19 | $51 | $0 | +0% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $13 | $0 | -3% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 27 | $38 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $32 | $0 | -1% |
| Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? | May 26 | $32 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 25 | $33 | $0 | -1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? | May 25 | $66 | −$1 | -1% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 23 | $29 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? | May 21 | $8 | $0 | -1% |
| Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? | May 19 | $34 | $0 | +0% |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | May 19 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | May 18 | $39 | −$7 | -17% |
| Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 14 | $2 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? | Jun 26 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec | May 07 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? | May 06 | $13 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Kanye launch a token on multiple blockchains? | Mar 28 | $1 | −$1 | -62% |
| Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? | Mar 27 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Mar 25 | $14 | $0 | +0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? | Mar 21 | $14 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? | Mar 17 | $14 | $0 | +0% |