Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:43:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c92…9ca4 crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$19 (-14%) realized −$17 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$33
other 12% −$1
weather 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -50.2% -54.9% 27% 27% -36.0%
≤30d 11 -50.2% -54.9% 27% 27% -36.0%
≤90d 11 -50.2% -54.9% 27% 27% -36.0%
all 11 -50.2% -54.9% 27% 27% -36.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -54.9% 27% -36.0%
10% ← realistic here -59.2% 27% -42.1%
15% -63.2% 27% -47.7%
20% -66.8% 27% -52.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 81% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$8 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$17
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-27%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 3¢ 6¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+63%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? No 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$12 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $13 +$7 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $11 1h
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 41°C on June 24? BUY No 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.03 · official $15.99 (match) · 33 history records