Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:52:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c94…06bc sports 132 markets active 2h ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 112L
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% +$2
politics 25% −$1
other 23% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 6% $0
world 4% $0
economics 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 132 -0.0% -9.5% 15% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×4.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 112
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)132 / 132
History coverage156d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 132 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $172 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 19 $105 $0 -0%
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Feb 19 $91 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $17 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 19 $47 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 19 $79 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $111 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 17 $66 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 17 $104 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 17 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 17 $46 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 17 $51 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 17 $48 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,000 by end of February? Feb 17 $47 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 19, 2026? Feb 17 $31 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 17 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 13 $51 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $165 $0 -0%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Feb 13 $48 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 13 $65 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 13 $125 $0 -0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Feb 13 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 13 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 04 $58 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 6, 2026? Feb 04 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 04 $36 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 04 $28 $0 -1%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 03 $83 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 03 $14 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Feb 03 $90 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $42 2h
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $43 9h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $52 14d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $52 15d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $41 22d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $41 22d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $44 33d
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $44 36d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $48 121d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 121d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 121d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $53 121d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $51 121d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $51 121d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 94¢ $8 121d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 94¢ $36 121d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 94¢ $5 121d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 94¢ $39 121d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 98¢ $49 121d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 98¢ $49 121d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $17 121d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $18 121d
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $17 121d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $18 121d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $12 121d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $48 121d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL No 94¢ $50 121d
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 94¢ $50 121d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 SELL No 94¢ $48 121d
Will Rupert Lowe be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 BUY No 94¢ $48 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 504 history records