Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:50:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

4C 0x4c94…7ccd other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip

Net edge-32%after slip

Net WR21%break-even

Win rate29%4W / 10L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$26per market

Trades / day13.8pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit38%portable

Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +21%

net ROI/market (all)-26.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	-18.9%	-26.7%	29%	21%	-15.8%
≤30d	14	-18.9%	-26.7%	29%	21%	-15.8%
≤90d	14	-18.9%	-26.7%	29%	21%	-15.8%
all	14	-18.9%	-26.7%	29%	21%	-15.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover13.8 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-26.7%	21%	-15.8%
10%	-33.7%	14%	-23.8%
15%	-40.1%	14%	-31.2%
20%	-46.0%	14%	-37.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 46% · top 2 72% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

25% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -19% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -36% → late -2% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.68 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×0.67 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$18

Realized−$2

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)29%

Wins / losses4 / 10

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)14 / 16

History coverage2d

Avg bet$26

Trades / day13.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	62¢	62¢	$10	$10	−$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	Yes	23¢	22¢	$8	$8	−$0 (-2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	Jun 15	$1	$0	-14%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	Jun 15	$21	−$21	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$11	−$11	-100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$11	+$9	+90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$11	−$3	-28%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$21	+$26	+121%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$81	+$14	+18%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$11	−$6	-58%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$5	−$3	-48%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	Jun 14	$128	+$6	+5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$45	−$18	-40%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 13	$5	−$1	-14%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw?	Jun 13	$21	−$18	-85%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$21	−$3	-12%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$5	55m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	62¢	$11	57m
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	SELL Yes	6¢	$1	1h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw?	BUY Yes	23¢	$3	1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?	BUY Yes	6¢	$1	1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw?	BUY Yes	44¢	$21	11h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	31¢	$8	11h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	50¢	$11	26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$11	26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	38¢	$11	26h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$47	29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	41¢	$21	31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	27¢	$4	31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$11	32h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	83¢	$52	33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	81¢	$21	33h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	74¢	$5	34h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	62¢	$2	35h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	97¢	$99	35h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	79¢	$8	35h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw?	BUY Yes	76¢	$21	35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	23¢	$8	36h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$2	44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$24	45h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	58¢	$19	45h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	6¢	$3	45h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	8¢	$5	45h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	8¢	$5	46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	6¢	$3	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	58¢	$21	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17.75 · official $17.75 (match) · 40 history records