Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:59:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4c95…557a crypto 1427 markets active 0h ago coverage 78d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,602 (+3%) realized +$1,585 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%1183W / 386L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 78d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$225
other 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 270 -52.2% -56.7% 39% 28% -23.6%
≤30d 685 -19.0% -26.7% 66% 46% -11.8%
≤90d 1569 -8.2% -17.0% 75% 50% -11.1%
all 1569 -8.2% -17.0% 75% 50% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 50% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 34% -19.6%
15% -32.2% 20% -27.4%
20% -38.8% 1% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$24 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized+$1,585
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses1183 / 386
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1569 / 1427
History coverage78d ⚠
Avg bet$36
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1569 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Down 70¢ 92¢ $52 $69 +$17 (+32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 365 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 7PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 12PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 9PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 8PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 14, 12AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 5PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 11AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 12, 12AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 11, 4PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 10, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 29, 5AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 12AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 4PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 2, 3PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 4AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 11AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 5PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 2? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 12, 5AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 11AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 8PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on January 31? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 3AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 3AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 1PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 10AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 12, 10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 6AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 2PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 31, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 8AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 8AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 18, 4PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 17, 4PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 8, 4PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 8PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 26, 3AM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 5PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 13, 10AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 24, 7AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 10PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 5PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 23, 4AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 8AM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $54 25m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $44 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $19 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $62 4h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $28 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $8 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $7 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $11 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $21 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $67 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $16 9h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $55 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $35 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $17 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $4 12h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $62 13h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $40 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $8 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 14h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.38 · official $63.62 · 3500 history records