Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4c95…b1af sports 195 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$47 (-6%) realized −$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate44%85W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$46
14 days−$52
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$93
other 20% −$17
world 15% +$38
crypto 1% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 -0.9% -10.4% 41% 37% -18.1%
≤30d 194 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 40% -16.8%
≤90d 194 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 40% -16.8%
all 194 -0.2% -9.7% 44% 40% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.7% 40% -16.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.3% 33% -24.8%
15% -26.2% 29% -32.0%
20% -33.4% 25% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses85 / 109
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions1
Markets (closed)194 / 195
History coverage9d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? No 76¢ 76¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 98 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $15 $0 -3%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 +$2 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 18 $15 $0 +1%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -6%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 18 $15 +$14 +91%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $15 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 $0 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$1 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $15 +$1 +4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$5 +34%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 18 $15 +$9 +61%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $16 +$10 +63%
ITF Monastir: Valentin Lapalu vs Cesar Bouchelaghem Jun 17 $15 −$10 -66%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -4%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $5 +$1 +18%
Will CD Palestino win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $2 +$3 +144%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 13 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $3 +$3 +96%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $10 +$7 +74%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau (BO5) - EMEA Masters P Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $8 +$1 +11%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
CD Coquimbo Unido vs. O'Higgins FC: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$4 +72%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +11%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Johannus Monday vs Giovanni Mpetshi Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $3 +$2 +58%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Donna Vekic Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Daria Kasatkina vs Anna Blinkova Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $5 +$1 +24%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $5 +$3 +60%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 61¢ $14 52m
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 92¢ $18 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 53¢ $14 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL No 90¢ $15 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 49¢ $15 1h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL No 49¢ $15 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 37¢ $14 3h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 20¢ $29 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 36¢ $14 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 53¢ $15 3h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 24¢ $15 3h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 87¢ $16 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $20 3h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 22¢ $24 3h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 20¢ $26 3h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY No 88¢ $15 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $15 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 11¢ $15 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 54¢ $15 5h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 80¢ $15 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $15 5h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 53¢ $15 5h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 76¢ $15 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 24¢ $15 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $15 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 38¢ $15 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $15 5h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 83¢ $15 5h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 48¢ $15 5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY No 50¢ $16 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.53 · official $14.53 (match) · 346 history records