Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:45:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c96…6ae2 sports 186 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-0%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate6%11W / 175L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 29% −$6
other 23% −$6
politics 18% −$3
crypto 10% −$2
economics 9% −$1
culture 5% −$1
world 5% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 3 -1.4% -10.8% 0% 0% -11.3%
≤90d 4 -1.1% -10.5% 0% 0% -11.1%
all 186 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses11 / 175
Open positions0
Markets (closed)186 / 186
History coverage174d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 186 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 28 $25 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $91 −$3 -3%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $46 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 22 $55 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $316 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 21 $87 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 21 $43 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Feb 21 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 21 $336 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 21 $94 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $45 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? Feb 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $102 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 21 $84 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 20 $3 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 28, 2026 (ET)? Feb 20 $1 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 20 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 20 $146 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Feb 20 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in February? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 19 $167 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 19 $61 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 19 $151 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 19 $87 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in February? Feb 19 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 19 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 19 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 19 $48 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 18 $95 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $228 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 18 $283 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $189 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 18 $264 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in February? Feb 18 $42 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 18 $99 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 18 $88 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $25 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $25 6h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 87¢ $31 13d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $34 13d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 95¢ $46 27d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $46 27d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 95¢ $37 40d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $37 41d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $6 125d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 97¢ $38 126d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $2 126d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $2 126d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $2 126d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $2 126d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $2 126d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $2 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $2 126d
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $2 126d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $2 126d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $2 126d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $6 126d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $5 126d
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $5 126d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 97¢ $38 126d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $45 126d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $45 126d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 95¢ $45 126d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 95¢ $45 126d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? SELL No 97¢ $42 126d
Will the US next strike Iran on March 7, 2026 (ET)? BUY No 97¢ $42 126d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 721 history records