Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:38:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c97…cd5a sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$125 · open −$127
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$256now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$55
other 41% +$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -20.7% -28.2% 38% 38% +2.6%
≤30d 13 -20.7% -28.2% 38% 38% +2.6%
≤90d 13 -20.7% -28.2% 38% 38% +2.6%
all 13 -20.7% -28.2% 38% 38% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 38% +2.6%
10% -35.1% 38% -7.2%
15% -41.4% 38% -16.2%
20% -47.1% 31% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -100% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$105 vs −$47 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$256
Realized+$125
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 20
History coverage6d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 22¢ $51 $101 +$51 (+100%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 28¢ $31 $94 +$63 (+206%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 14¢ $200 $60 −$140 (-70%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ $101 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $206 +$144 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 28 $64 −$63 -98%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $304 +$115 +38%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 28 $39 +$100 +253%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $123 −$121 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $100 +$63 +63%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $95 +$102 +107%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $97 −$94 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $4 −$3 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $72 −$70 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $203 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $52 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes $31 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 30¢ $64 22h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $206 22h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY South Africa 72¢ $165 27h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY South Africa 72¢ $139 28h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 28¢ $29 46h
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 27¢ $11 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $82 46h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) AND Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY 18¢ $100 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY 22¢ $100 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL 99¢ $163 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 100¢ $197 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 48¢ $49 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $46 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 60¢ $100 3d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY 23¢ $100 3d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 22¢ $48 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 29¢ $48 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 11¢ $4 6d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 23¢ $72 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $2 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $10 6d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $255.53 · official $257.82 (match) · 30 history records