Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:57:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c98…4ef5 other 265 markets active 1h ago coverage 139d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-0%) realized −$84 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%14W / 250L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$16
14 days−$28
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% −$35
sports 22% −$25
politics 8% −$7
culture 8% −$9
economics 7% −$10
crypto 7% −$7
world 4% −$1
tech 0% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 68 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 264 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

139d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized−$84
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses14 / 250
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)264 / 265
History coverage139d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 264 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $54 $54 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $249 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $425 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $327 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $199 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $363 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $539 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $265 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 18 $408 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 17 $136 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $119 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $545 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $186 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $223 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $398 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $453 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $592 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $57 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $849 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $116 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $117 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $301 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $209 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $315 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $166 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $264 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $246 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $558 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $321 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $313 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $711 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $427 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $382 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 10 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $403 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $339 +$1 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $572 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $589 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $566 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $328 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $557 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $123 −$1 -1%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $397 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $61 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 05 $331 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $55 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $55 2h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $55 4h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 5h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 7h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $55 14h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 16h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $55 23h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $55 24h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 26h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $55 27h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $55 30h
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $55 31h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $55 33h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 35h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $20 36h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $20 38h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $55 42h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $56 44h
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $56 2d
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $56 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $56 3d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $56 3d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $56 3d
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $56 3d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $56 3d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $56 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.41 · official $54.41 (match) · 1411 history records