Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:25:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4c99…e2ee crypto 596 markets active 4d ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$76 (-3%) realized −$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%327W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day29.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$50
14 days−$88
30 days−$112
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$112
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 389 -5.0% -14.1% 53% 53% -12.6%
≤30d 596 -6.0% -15.0% 55% 54% -13.7%
≤90d 596 -6.0% -15.0% 55% 54% -13.7%
all 596 -6.0% -15.0% 55% 54% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 54% -13.7%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 53% -22.0%
15% -30.6% 49% -29.5%
20% -37.4% 41% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses327 / 269
Open positions0
Markets (closed)596 / 596
History coverage21d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day29.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 596 Trades
no open positions (269 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +124%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +97%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$4 +129%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +93%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$6 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +114%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$5 +110%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$2 +55%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$4 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $3 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $3 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $4 4d
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $4 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 4d
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $4 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 951 history records