Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c9a…b2c6 sports 166 markets active 499d ago coverage 51d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 51d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$17,690 (+48%) realized +$17,690 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +30% what you keep after slip
Net edge+30%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate71%120W / 50L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day65.2pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 51d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,604
politics 0% +$254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)+53.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 170 +69.1% +53.0% 71% 61% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +53.0% 61% -12.8%
10% ← realistic here +38.4% 42% -21.2%
15% +25.0% 32% -28.8%
20% +12.8% 20% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6359542% too few recent
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +123% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$55 vs −$155 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17,690
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses120 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)170 / 166
History coverage51d ⚠
Avg bet$223
Trades / day65.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 170 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jusuf Nurkic lead the NBA in Rebounds? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Real Sociedad win La Liga? Jun 15 $0 +$420 +209868100%
Will Rangers win the UEFA Europa League? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Feb 04 $10 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Timberwolves Feb 02 $319 −$319 -100%
Bulls vs. Raptors Feb 01 $10 $0 +1%
Celtics vs. Pelicans Feb 01 $216 +$44 +20%
Cavaliers vs. 76ers Jan 28 $785 −$785 -100%
Wizards vs. Mavericks Jan 28 $244 +$41 +17%
Rockets vs. Hawks Jan 20 $61 −$17 -28%
Hornets vs. Clippers Jan 20 $220 −$63 -29%
Nets vs. Thunder Jan 20 $546 +$54 +10%
Rockets vs. Trail Blazers Jan 19 $6 +$3 +47%
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves Jan 19 $442 +$144 +33%
Wizards vs. Warriors Jan 19 $8 +$3 +43%
Hornets vs. Bulls Jan 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Magic vs. Celtics Jan 18 $4 +$3 +70%
Raptors vs. Bucks Jan 17 $303 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Mavericks Jan 17 $336 +$21 +6%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jan 17 $239 −$68 -29%
Suns vs. Wizards Jan 17 $405 +$83 +20%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Jan 16 $281 −$281 -100%
Celtics vs. Raptors Jan 16 $832 −$832 -100%
Nets vs. Clippers Jan 15 $94 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration? Jan 15 $46 +$254 +558%
Rockets vs. Kings Jan 15 $57 −$18 -31%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jan 15 $93 $0 -0%
Pelicans vs. Bulls Jan 15 $137 −$137 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pacers Jan 15 $371 +$130 +35%
Thunder vs. 76ers Jan 15 $433 +$130 +30%
Warriors vs. Raptors Jan 14 $161 −$161 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Wizards Jan 14 $348 +$43 +12%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Jan 13 $391 −$391 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jan 13 $132 +$49 +37%
Thunder vs. Wizards Jan 13 $460 +$40 +9%
Pelicans vs. Celtics Jan 13 $625 +$77 +12%
Heat vs. Trail Blazers Jan 12 $61 +$29 +47%
Jazz vs. Suns Jan 12 $82 +$39 +47%
Raptors vs. Pistons Jan 12 $169 +$58 +34%
Kings vs. Celtics Jan 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Pelicans vs. 76ers Jan 11 $151 −$151 -100%
Nets vs. Nuggets Jan 11 $112 +$14 +12%
Thunder vs. Knicks Jan 11 $107 +$51 +47%
Wizards vs. Bulls Jan 11 $218 +$38 +18%
Heat vs. Jazz Jan 10 $115 +$55 +47%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jan 10 $1,346 +$154 +11%
Warriors vs. Pistons Jan 10 $2,340 +$2 +0%
Trail Blazers vs. Mavericks Jan 10 $78 −$21 -26%
Wizards vs. 76ers Jan 09 $153 +$34 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wizards vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 88¢ $319 498d
Celtics vs. Pelicans BUY Celtics 83¢ $216 499d
Bulls vs. Raptors SELL Raptors $0 503d
Wizards vs. Mavericks BUY Mavericks 85¢ $234 503d
Cavaliers vs. 76ers BUY Cavaliers 77¢ $260 508d
Cavaliers vs. 76ers BUY Cavaliers 75¢ $525 509d
Nets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 91¢ $546 511d
Raptors vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 84¢ $32 513d
Raptors vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 84¢ $75 513d
Raptors vs. Bucks SELL Bucks 84¢ $196 513d
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves SELL Cavaliers 76¢ $38 514d
Thunder vs. Mavericks SELL Thunder 73¢ $358 514d
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves BUY Cavaliers 70¢ $12 514d
Thunder vs. Mavericks BUY Thunder 75¢ $30 514d
Raptors vs. Bucks BUY Bucks 84¢ $303 514d
Thunder vs. Mavericks BUY Thunder 68¢ $111 515d
Thunder vs. Mavericks BUY Thunder 68¢ $20 515d
Thunder vs. Mavericks BUY Thunder 68¢ $138 515d
Thunder vs. Mavericks BUY Thunder 69¢ $21 515d
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves BUY Cavaliers 70¢ $2 515d
Suns vs. Wizards BUY Suns 83¢ $5 515d
Suns vs. Wizards BUY Suns 83¢ $17 515d
Suns vs. Wizards BUY Suns 83¢ $17 515d
Suns vs. Wizards BUY Suns 83¢ $366 515d
Wizards vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 70¢ $6 515d
Nets vs. Clippers SELL Clippers 88¢ $94 515d
Will Michelle Obama attend presidential inauguration? SELL No 99¢ $300 515d
Cavaliers vs. Timberwolves BUY Cavaliers 74¢ $36 516d
Celtics vs. Raptors BUY Celtics 90¢ $262 516d
Rockets vs. Kings SELL Rockets 41¢ $40 516d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records