Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4c9a…0cd4 sports 192 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (880 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$434 · open +$434
Gross ROI / mkt +53% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +18% what you keep after slip
Net edge+18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate53%100W / 87L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$434per market
Trades / day879.5pace
Fees−$939est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$655now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$1,620
other 5% +$85
world 3% +$441
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (880 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)+38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 +52.9% +38.4% 53% 35% -5.8%
≤30d 187 +52.9% +38.4% 53% 35% -5.8%
≤90d 187 +52.9% +38.4% 53% 35% -5.8%
all 187 +52.9% +38.4% 53% 35% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover879.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +38.4% 35% -5.8%
10% ← realistic here +25.1% 27% -14.8%
15% +13.0% 21% -23.0%
20% +2.0% 17% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +53% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +83% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
14.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$45 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$655
Realized−$434
Unrealized+$434
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses100 / 87
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$939
Open positions5
Markets (closed)187 / 192
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$434
Trades / day879.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 187 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Yes 23¢ 96¢ $115 $484 +$369 (+323%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 63¢ 98¢ $84 $132 +$48 (+57%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 30¢ 97¢ $11 $35 +$24 (+225%)
Will Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 58¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 21 $215 −$15 -7%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $420 −$60 -14%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 21 $269 +$31 +12%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $14 $0 +1%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $193 +$9 +4%
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 20 $340 +$60 +18%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 20 $278 −$127 -46%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 20 $835 −$96 -12%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $6 $0 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Kamilla Rakhimova vs Oksana Sele Jun 20 $788 −$94 -12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emiliana Arango vs Alycia Parks Jun 20 $463 −$59 -13%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $516 −$16 -3%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $33 +$2 +5%
Grass Court Championships: Linda Noskova vs Alexandra Eala Jun 20 $595 +$58 +10%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Sofia Kenin vs Daria Snigur Jun 20 $136 −$3 -2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Oleksandra Oliynykova vs Sofia J Jun 20 $72 +$28 +38%
Brescia: Mayar Sherif vs Elizara Yaneva Jun 20 $348 −$43 -12%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: James Duckworth vs Giles Hussey Jun 20 $233 +$21 +9%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Anastasia Zakharova vs Lilli Tag Jun 20 $1,997 −$107 -5%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Felix Gill vs Marco Trungelliti Jun 20 $383 +$21 +6%
Brescia: Xiyu Wang vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 20 $208 −$8 -4%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $3,283 −$39 -1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Indianna Spink vs Kimberly Birre Jun 20 $178 +$65 +36%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $315 +$71 +22%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 20 $980 +$109 +11%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Emilio Nava vs Hamish Stewart Jun 20 $571 −$113 -20%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Peyton Stearns vs Emily Appleton Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines (BO3) - The International Southe Jun 20 $32 +$17 +52%
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Charaeva vs Ayla Aksu Jun 20 $3,316 −$133 -4%
Nottingham Open: Emma Navarro vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 20 $1,100 +$292 +26%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $338 −$122 -36%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Matteo Arnaldi vs Alastair Gray Jun 20 $812 +$38 +5%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $391 +$234 +60%
Dota 2: OG vs InterActive Philippines - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $98 +$34 +35%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $250 +$50 +20%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Aleksandar Vu Jun 20 $783 +$10 +1%
Counter-Strike: QUAZAR vs Hermine Esports Club (BO3) - ESEA European F Jun 20 $0 $0 +22%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $1,556 −$42 -3%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol Jun 20 $303 +$8 +3%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Ella Seidel Jun 20 $87 +$34 +40%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 20 $324 +$26 +8%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Antoine Ghibaudo vs Petr Bar Bi Jun 20 $477 +$40 +8%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $356 −$12 -3%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Diane Parry vs Aoi Ito Jun 20 $98 +$2 +3%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $98 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $786 −$192 -24%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Irina-Camelia Begu vs Tamara Korpatsc Jun 20 $829 +$96 +12%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $72 −$59 -82%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $187 +$13 +7%
ITF Kayseri: Julia Adams vs Adelina Lachinova Jun 20 $29 −$17 -58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 98¢ $239 22m
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Minnesota Twins 100¢ $100 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 17¢ $17 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 34¢ $34 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 19¢ $19 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $30 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 39¢ $16 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 45¢ $15 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 58¢ $59 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 20¢ $3 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 62¢ $3 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 62¢ $3 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 62¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 74¢ $1 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 74¢ $73 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 13¢ $12 1h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 13¢ $1 1h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $21 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 54¢ $33 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $6 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 32¢ $0 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 32¢ $1 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 55¢ $40 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 34¢ $34 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 63¢ $20 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $0 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 62¢ $7 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Seattle Mariners 66¢ $66 2h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Boston Red Sox 34¢ $5 2h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 38¢ $38 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $655.47 · official $656.14 (match) · 3500 history records