Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:32:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4c9c…e006 sports 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 698d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,795 (+11%) realized +$2,795 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR61%break-even
Win rate67%24W / 12L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown55%max
Avg bet$665per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,114
7 days−$1,114
14 days−$1,114
30 days−$615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% +$2,477
other 11% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +61%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -84.8% -86.2% 0% 0% -65.1%
≤30d 7 -48.6% -53.5% 29% 14% -28.0%
≤90d 7 -48.6% -53.5% 29% 14% -28.0%
all 36 -4.1% -13.2% 67% 61% -0.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 61% -0.0%
10% -21.5% 50% -9.6%
15% -29.1% 25% -18.3%
20% -36.1% 11% -26.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$1,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$277 vs −$340 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

698d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,795
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses24 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage698d
Avg bet$665
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown55%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner Team Spirit 63¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Horiguchi vs. Ulanbekov (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 25 $50 −$50 -100%
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett (Lightweight, Main Card) Jun 25 $99 −$99 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Jun 25 $247 −$247 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 25 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner Jun 25 $918 −$218 -24%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $599 +$498 +83%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $599 +$1 +0%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 19 $744 −$432 -58%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Nov 19 $132 −$120 -91%
Will the fight be won by submission? Nov 19 $308 −$308 -100%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Nov 17 $100 +$20 +20%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Falcons - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $374 +$58 +16%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Heroic - Game 2 Winner Nov 08 $297 +$77 +26%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Falcons (BO3) Nov 02 $323 +$102 +31%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) Nov 02 $259 +$63 +24%
Volkov vs. Almeida Oct 25 $195 −$195 -100%
Will Pump.fun perform an airdrop by July 31? Oct 25 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Aspinall vs. Gane Oct 25 $2,263 −$783 -35%
Dern vs. Jandiroba Oct 25 $10 +$1 +11%
Bautista vs. Nurmagomedov Oct 25 $1,553 +$108 +7%
Rakic vs. Murzakanov Oct 25 $377 +$403 +107%
Park vs. Aliskerov Oct 25 $450 +$128 +28%
Dvalishvili vs. Sandhagen Oct 05 $1,382 +$346 +25%
Nurmagomedov vs. Hughes Oct 04 $1,000 +$382 +38%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 17 $1,861 +$766 +41%
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. McGhee Jul 27 $820 +$245 +30%
UFC Fight Night: Magomedov vs. Barriault Jul 26 $698 +$122 +18%
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira Jun 29 $119 +$34 +28%
Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley Jun 08 $45 +$18 +41%
Du Plessis vs. Strickland Feb 09 $1,987 +$935 +47%
Will Usyk beat Fury? Dec 22 $745 +$562 +75%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Mike Tyson? Nov 16 $989 +$535 +54%
Topuria vs. Holloway Oct 27 $1,651 +$580 +35%
UFC 304: Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad Oct 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Whittaker vs. Chimaev Oct 26 $1,134 +$518 +46%
Ankalaev vs. Rakic Oct 26 $500 +$135 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner SELL Team Spirit 100¢ $233 50m
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 63¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 63¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 63¢ $43 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 63¢ $32 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Spirit 63¢ $57 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 100¢ $147 1h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 70¢ $104 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 27¢ $104 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 50¢ $197 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Nigma Galaxy 54¢ $197 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Nigma Galaxy 67¢ $252 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Spirit 45¢ $252 2h
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Spirit 63¢ $364 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $500 11d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner SELL Team Yandex 100¢ $1,097 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 56¢ $258 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 53¢ $169 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 53¢ $3 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 53¢ $152 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner BUY Team Yandex 53¢ $17 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 80¢ $470 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 80¢ $4 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 80¢ $88 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 80¢ $30 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL LGD Gaming 80¢ $8 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 75¢ $96 17d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 80¢ $503 17d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Azamat Murzakanov 70¢ $148 74d
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca BUY Azamat Murzakanov 71¢ $99 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.16 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records