Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:39:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4c9d…5128 world 74 markets active 1h ago coverage 527d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%33W / 37L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$6
politics 25% −$1
sports 18% −$12
other 11% +$1
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.6% -9.0% 17% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 18 -0.5% -10.0% 28% 6% -8.9%
≤90d 59 +0.1% -9.4% 41% 2% -9.3%
all 70 -0.6% -10.0% 47% 4% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 4% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

527d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses33 / 37
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions4
Markets (closed)70 / 74
History coverage527d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-23%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $101 +$4 +4%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $88 $0 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $32 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $19 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -12%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $94 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $101 +$2 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $16 +$3 +17%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 21 $24 −$1 -3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $22 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 17 $78 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $43 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $40 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $7 $0 +5%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $1 $0 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $19 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $42 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $92 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $42 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $35 $0 +1%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $15 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $42 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $92 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $143 −$1 -1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $204 +$1 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 06 $37 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 04 $33 $0 -0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $24 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 01 $5 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 57¢ $49 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 57¢ $55 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $40 15h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 21h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 24h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 11¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $3 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $13 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $15 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $37 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 84¢ $13 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 83¢ $48 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $39 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $39 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $52 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $53 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $2 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $55 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.24 · official $6.15 (match) · 287 history records