Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:29:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ca0…90e0 weather 43 markets active 3h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$10 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate82%33W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$2
weather 37% $0
crypto 17% +$3
world 3% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 19 +0.2% -9.3% 89% 11% -8.0%
≤90d 40 -1.6% -10.9% 82% 10% -9.1%
all 40 -1.6% -10.9% 82% 10% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 10% -9.1%
10% -19.5% 10% -17.8%
15% -27.2% 8% -25.7%
20% -34.4% 5% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$14 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses33 / 7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)40 / 43
History coverage57d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+12%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+26%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $23 $10 −$13 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? Jun 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 7? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 07 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on May 31? Jun 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 31? Jun 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 31? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 31? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $20 −$17 -88%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $22 +$30 +137%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $7 +$3 +41%
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 4AM ET May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 22? May 24 $20 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET May 22 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 13? May 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 22 $19 +$61 +315%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4AM ET May 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C or higher on May 10? May 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) hit (LOW) $365 Week of May 4 2026? May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 28 to May 5, May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 17°C on May 5? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9PM ET May 05 $11 +$3 +25%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 05 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 30 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 29 $11 −$2 -20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 2h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $50 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C or higher on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $11 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $6 11d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $15 14d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $5 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $16 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $15 25d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $30 25d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes $0 29d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes $2 29d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $51 29d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 29d
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $7 32d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes $4 32d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 32d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 32d
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $22 32d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 34d
Will White House post 200+ posts from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.05 · official $89.05 (match) · 80 history records