Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4C 0x4ca1…a8c0 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 638d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate45%10W / 12L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$784per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 87% −$5
politics 5% +$1
crypto 4% +$1
economics 3% +$2
sports 1% $0
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
all 22 +1.6% -8.1% 45% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 5% -9.5%
10% -16.9% 0% -18.2%
15% -24.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -32.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

638d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses10 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage638d
Avg bet$784
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $39 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? May 06 $39 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 22 $15,245 −$16 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Mar 22 $231 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Mar 22 $411 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 24 $193 $0 +0%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? Jan 24 $220 +$10 +5%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 05 $15 +$1 +8%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Oct 24 $16 +$2 +15%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Sep 30 $15 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Sep 24 $17 +$1 +5%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Dec 27 $20 $0 +2%
2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House Oct 05 $105 $0 +0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? Oct 05 $353 $0 +0%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Oct 03 $102 $0 +0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 03 $476 $0 +0%
Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year? Oct 02 $103 $0 +0%
Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? Oct 01 $102 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Sep 29 $82 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Sep 28 $100 $0 -0%
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ Sep 28 $100 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $39 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 1h
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 52d
Will Solana dip to $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $39 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $15,229 97d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $15,245 97d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $209 154d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? BUY No 99¢ $22 154d
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $411 154d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $193 179d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 94¢ $47 180d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $132 180d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? BUY No 96¢ $40 180d
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 204d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 93¢ $15 246d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem SELL Yes 83¢ $18 246d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 72¢ $16 263d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? SELL Yes 41¢ $15 271d
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 276d
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? BUY Yes 95¢ $17 460d
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? SELL No 100¢ $20 548d
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? BUY No 98¢ $20 615d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL No 49¢ $49 637d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 51¢ $51 637d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ SELL No 99¢ $99 637d
2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ SELL Yes $1 637d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.41 · official $39.41 (match) · 60 history records