trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤30d | 1 | -0.0% | -9.6% | 0% | 0% | -9.6% |
| ≤90d | 2 | +0.1% | -9.4% | 50% | 0% | -9.4% |
| all | 22 | +1.6% | -8.1% | 45% | 5% | -9.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -8.1% | 5% | -9.5% |
| 10% | -16.9% | 0% | -18.2% |
| 15% | -24.9% | 0% | -26.1% |
| 20% | -32.3% | 0% | -33.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 99¢ | 99¢ | $39 | $39 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | Jun 28 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Solana dip to $20 in March? | May 06 | $39 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | Mar 22 | $15,245 | −$16 | -0% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | Mar 22 | $231 | +$2 | +1% |
| Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? | Mar 22 | $411 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? | Jan 24 | $193 | $0 | +0% |
| Lighter market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch? | Jan 24 | $220 | +$10 | +5% |
| Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? | Dec 29 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? | Dec 05 | $15 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem | Oct 24 | $16 | +$2 | +15% |
| Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? | Sep 30 | $15 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? | Sep 24 | $17 | +$1 | +5% |
| Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? | Dec 27 | $20 | $0 | +2% |
| 2024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House | Oct 05 | $105 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Fed cut interest rates 2 times in 2024? | Oct 05 | $353 | $0 | +0% |
| Arsenal wins the Premier League? | Oct 03 | $102 | $0 | +0% |
| Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | Oct 03 | $476 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Caitlin Clark win Rookie of the Year? | Oct 02 | $103 | $0 | +0% |
| Will a Democrat win Virginia Presidential Election? | Oct 01 | $102 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? | Sep 29 | $82 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Sep 28 | $100 | $0 | -0% |
| 2024 presidential election: GOP wins by 215+ | Sep 28 | $100 | $0 | -0% |