trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? | Yes | 11¢ | 21¢ | $2 | $4 | +$2 (+91%) |
| Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? | No | 52¢ | 50¢ | $3 | $3 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 64¢ | 64¢ | $2 | $2 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Exact Score: Any Other Score? | Yes | 18¢ | 11¢ | $3 | $2 | −$1 (-40%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChatGPT Outage by April 17? | Apr 17 | $5 | +$7 | +142% |
| North Korea missile test/launch by April 30, 2026? | Apr 15 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will GTA 6 cost $100+? | Apr 13 | $3 | −$1 | -40% |
| Will Sevilla FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? | Apr 11 | $3 | −$1 | -32% |
| Will Melania say "Husband" or "Trump" during statement on April 9? | Apr 09 | $1 | +$1 | +96% |
| Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? | Apr 08 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? | Apr 08 | $2 | −$1 | -46% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? | Apr 08 | $2 | +$5 | +233% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 8 | +19.3% | +7.9% | 38% | 38% | -5.9% |
| all | 8 | +19.3% | +7.9% | 38% | 38% | -5.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +7.9% | 38% | -5.9% |
| 10% | -2.4% | 38% | -14.9% |
| 15% | -11.8% | 38% | -23.1% |
| 20% | -20.5% | 38% | -30.6% |