Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T15:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4ca3…b0a2 sports 106 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$311 (-11%) realized −$308 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate52%54W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$79
7 days−$55
14 days+$33
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 45% −$18
crypto 44% −$303
other 11% −$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +31.3% +18.8% 53% 50% -16.5%
≤30d 66 +9.7% -0.7% 52% 50% -3.9%
≤90d 104 -5.9% -14.8% 52% 36% -21.8%
all 104 -5.9% -14.8% 52% 36% -21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 36% -21.8%
10% -23.0% 33% -29.3%
15% -30.4% 27% -36.1%
20% -37.2% 19% -42.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$16 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$308
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses54 / 50
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage37d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner Sharks 72¢ 59¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-18%)
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Sharks 49¢ 38¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $26 +$3 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$4 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET Jun 27 $10 −$10 -96%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 27 $9 +$13 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $6 +$10 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET Jun 27 $5 +$2 +32%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers Jun 27 $13 −$13 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 26 $43 −$8 -18%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? Jun 26 $17 −$2 -13%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 25 $19 +$8 +43%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Washington Mystics Jun 25 $6 +$2 +39%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $48 +$13 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +64%
Valorant: FOKUS vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Group C Jun 23 $22 −$21 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $11 +$9 +75%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $12 +$12 +96%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Barça eSports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 22 $15 +$14 +89%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs Inner Circle (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 22 $45 +$32 +71%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $16 +$8 +49%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 21 $25 −$24 -97%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $38 −$22 -58%
Seattle Storm vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 20 $31 +$17 +55%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $18 −$18 -98%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Jun 20 $34 −$2 -5%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 20 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $7 −$7 -97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $37 +$25 +67%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $36 +$23 +65%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $20 −$1 -6%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $38 +$29 +76%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $5 +$2 +47%
Seattle Storm vs. PortlandFire Jun 18 $6 +$4 +66%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $26 +$13 +53%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $37 +$18 +50%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix - Map 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Qinwen Zheng Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 17 $9 +$8 +84%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Sharks 49¢ $5 24m
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs ECHO - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 72¢ $8 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 71¢ $29 33m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET SELL Down 86¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 17h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY ECHO 41¢ $3 17h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo SELL Phoenix Mercury 100¢ $22 18h
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo BUY Phoenix Mercury 40¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 20h
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series BUY Vexa 26¢ $3 21h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN SELL Inner Circle Esports 93¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Inner Circle Esports 34¢ $6 24h
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo BUY Natus Vincere 59¢ $20 27h
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Julie&cie (BO3) - CCT Europe Challengers BUY NEW VISION 58¢ $13 27h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 53¢ $41 39h
Dota 2: 4 Anchors and Ilmeria vs the bug - Game 2 Winner BUY the bug 47¢ $7 42h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 58¢ $18 43h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 54¢ $18 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 51¢ $17 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 67¢ $25 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $62,500 in June? SELL No 48¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.38 · official $13.24 · 207 history records