Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:32:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4ca5…3ebb
crypto · 615 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
+$12 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses412 / 203
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)615 / 615
History coverage87d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day18.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 615 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$67
14 days+$71
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Down 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Up 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Up 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 96¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Down 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Down 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 12 $19 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 12 $8 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $35 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 12 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$27 +635%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 11 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$3 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 10 $47 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 10 $45 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 10 $43 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 10 $42 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $40 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 10 $39 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 10 $11 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$14
sports 1% −$1
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $18 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $9 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +5.9% -4.2% 81% 29% -4.7%
≤30d 169 -4.6% -13.7% 70% 28% -7.0%
≤90d 615 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 38% -9.3%
all 615 -7.7% -16.5% 67% 38% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 38% -9.3%
10% -24.5% 19% -18.0%
15% -31.8% 10% -25.9%
20% -38.5% 7% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1975 history records