Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:54:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4ca7…e965 sports 266 markets active 12h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$87 (-1%) realized −$49 · open −$38
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%129W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$229now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days+$5
14 days−$14
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$70
other 9% −$56
world 2% −$58
politics 1% $0
crypto 0% +$46
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +3.7% -6.2% 60% 56% -9.1%
≤30d 116 -2.2% -11.5% 54% 53% -7.4%
≤90d 244 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 52% -10.8%
all 244 -2.8% -12.1% 53% 52% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 52% -10.8%
10% -20.5% 50% -19.4%
15% -28.2% 44% -27.2%
20% -35.2% 37% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$23 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$229
Realized−$49
Unrealized−$38
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses129 / 115
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions22
Markets (closed)244 / 266
History coverage84d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 94¢ $13 $20 +$7 (+55%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 93¢ $18 $19 +$1 (+6%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 95¢ $17 $18 +$1 (+8%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 76¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+8%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 70¢ $14 $13 −$2 (-12%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 52¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 49¢ 52¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+5%)
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 53¢ 56¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 50¢ 51¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 37¢ 42¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+15%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 46¢ $9 $8 −$0 (-4%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 43¢ 38¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-10%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees New York Yankees 53¢ 52¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 38¢ 39¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+4%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 30¢ $13 $6 −$7 (-51%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 33¢ 22¢ $8 $5 −$3 (-32%)
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Prelims) Karol Rosa 53¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $16 +$6 +38%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $19 +$7 +38%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $12 +$1 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $16 +$7 +48%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $5 +$3 +57%
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter Jun 16 $193 −$7 -3%
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 15 $12 +$5 +38%
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $16 +$6 +42%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $18 +$5 +27%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $18 +$6 +32%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 15 $25 +$18 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $19 +$14 +76%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty: O/U 167.5 Jun 14 $28 +$23 +83%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $13 −$13 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $20 +$20 +97%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $12 −$11 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alexander Blockx vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 14 $46 −$2 -3%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $22 −$22 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 +$4 +20%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$4 +86%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$6 +31%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $11 +$14 +119%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $18 −$18 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $15 +$6 +44%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 +$21 +105%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $9 +$16 +172%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $11 +$8 +79%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $8 +$6 +67%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 +$7 +42%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $8 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 52¢ $10 11h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 53¢ $10 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $19 13h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 50¢ $10 13h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse BUY Brandon Nakashima 73¢ $10 13h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast BUY KT Rolster Challengers 49¢ $41 13h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 50¢ $13 31h
UFC Fight Night: Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos (Women's Bantamweight, Pr BUY Karol Rosa 53¢ $5 42h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 49¢ $10 42h
Nottingham Open: Harriet Dart vs Katie Boulter BUY Katie Boulter 51¢ $193 43h
Figueira Da Foz: Carolyn Ansari vs Barbora Palicova BUY Barbora Palicova 50¢ $5 2d
Halle Open: Nuno Borges vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 72¢ $12 2d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 33¢ $8 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 91¢ $12 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $16 2d
Figueira Da Foz: Katarina Kuzmova vs Viktoria Morvayova BUY Katarina Kuzmova 53¢ $5 2d
Nottingham 2: Henrique Rocha vs Christopher O'Connell BUY Christopher OConnell 51¢ $5 2d
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-12.5) BUY Minnesota Lynx 53¢ $10 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Under 49¢ $10 2d
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro BUY Tallon Griekspoor 57¢ $10 2d
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 72¢ $16 2d
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Suzan Lamens vs Dalma Galfi BUY Suzan Lamens 70¢ $16 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 50¢ $12 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $13 2d
Parma: Franco Agamenone vs Stefano Napolitano BUY Stefano Napolitano 50¢ $10 2d
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of BUY Riyadh Falcons 58¢ $25 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 56¢ $19 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $12 2d
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Jiri Lehecka 63¢ $5 2d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY RED Canids 56¢ $15 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $229.32 · official $229.22 (match) · 481 history records