Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:24:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4caa…28fb crypto 1000 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (62 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$267 (+0%) realized +$267 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate88%882W / 118L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day62.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$138
7 days+$341
14 days−$752
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$236
sports 1% +$9
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (62 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 111 +1.3% -8.4% 95% 4% -7.2%
≤30d 996 -0.4% -9.9% 88% 9% -9.8%
≤90d 1000 -0.4% -9.9% 88% 9% -9.8%
all 1000 -0.4% -9.9% 88% 9% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover62.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.9% 9% -9.8%
10% ← realistic here -18.5% 3% -18.5%
15% -26.4% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 1% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$23 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$267
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses882 / 118
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1000 / 1000
History coverage31d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day62.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1000 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET Jun 15 $102 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $202 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $100 +$1 +1%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $100 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1PM ET Jun 14 $199 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12PM ET Jun 14 $905 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $97 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10PM ET Jun 14 $818 +$114 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9PM ET Jun 14 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8PM ET Jun 14 $624 +$105 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7PM ET Jun 14 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $95 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5PM ET Jun 13 $188 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4PM ET Jun 13 $95 +$13 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11AM ET Jun 13 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10AM ET Jun 13 $93 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8AM ET Jun 13 $93 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7AM ET Jun 13 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10PM ET Jun 13 $93 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9PM ET Jun 13 $93 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $93 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $103 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $101 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $109 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $102 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $205 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $101 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $105 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $101 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $105 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $101 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $103 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $108 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $103 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $103 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $104 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $103 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $104 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $104 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2129 history records