Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cad…e203 crypto 426 markets active 2h ago coverage 8d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (409 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3,716 (-32%) realized −$3,693 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate29%118W / 284L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day408.5pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,232now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$283
other 20% +$305
sports 14% +$63
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (409 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 337 -15.7% -23.7% 28% 13% -8.2%
≤30d 402 -13.5% -21.8% 29% 13% -8.6%
≤90d 402 -13.5% -21.8% 29% 13% -8.6%
all 402 -13.5% -21.8% 29% 13% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover408.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -21.8% 13% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.3% 7% -17.3%
15% -36.1% 6% -25.3%
20% -42.4% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$4 · ×2.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$1,232
Realized−$3,693
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses118 / 284
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions24
Markets (closed)402 / 426
History coverage8d ⚠
Avg bet$28
Trades / day408.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 402 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 15¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Under 69¢ 68¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Over 65¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Senegal 60¢ 60¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 57¢ 56¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 64¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Norway 65¢ 57¢ $50 $44 −$6 (-12%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Uruguay 70¢ 68¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-2%)
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 42¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? No 43¢ 42¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $25 $20 −$5 (-21%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? No 21¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $25 +$17 +67%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $25 +$33 +129%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $25 +$10 +38%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 +$26 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $25 −$8 -31%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $25 +$28 +109%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $51 +$51 +101%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $25 +$7 +29%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 +$51 +101%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $51 −$34 -66%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $26 +$23 +91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$32 -63%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Paraguay 2 - 2 Australia? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Netherlands? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 57¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 69¢ $50 1h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 70¢ $25 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $25 1h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY Senegal 60¢ $51 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 65¢ $51 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $101 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $103 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $102 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 2h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $26 3h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $25 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $25 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $25 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 21¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 2 France? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 France? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $25 3h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 21¢ $26 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 12h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $17 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 43¢ $25 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 52¢ $18 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,232.43 · official $1,232.44 (match) · 3500 history records