Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:37:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4C
0x4cae…efe6
crypto · 93 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$0 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5
Realized+$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses52 / 36
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)88 / 93
History coverage7d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 5 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fernando Dias da Costa win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 59¢ 35¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-40%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Cloud9 54¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Platforma Reupblicana “Nô Kumpu Guiné” win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 62¢ 41¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on June 11? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C on June 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 $0 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$1 -36%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +16%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +44%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +222%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 74% +$9
weather 20% −$7
other 2% $0
politics 2% −$1
sports 1% −$1
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +5.5% -4.5% 59% 45% -8.8%
≤30d 88 +5.5% -4.5% 59% 45% -8.8%
≤90d 88 +5.5% -4.5% 59% 45% -8.8%
all 88 +5.5% -4.5% 59% 45% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.5% 45% -8.8%
10% -13.7% 36% -17.5%
15% -22.0% 27% -25.5%
20% -29.7% 20% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.86 · official $4.86 (match) · 201 history records