Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:53:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4cb2…945c politics 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 89d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%1W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$109per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$1
other 28% $0
sports 7% +$1
economics 7% $0
tech 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 14 -0.0% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
all 14 -0.0% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×4.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

89d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses1 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage89d
Avg bet$109
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 20 $108 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $108 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $108 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $108 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $108 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $109 +$1 +1%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $109 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 06 $109 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 31 $109 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 23 $109 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $108 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $108 15h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $108 17d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $108 18d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 23d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 24d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $108 32d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $108 32d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 37d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 38d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $108 43d
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $108 43d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $109 63d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $109 64d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $109 64d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $109 67d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $109 68d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $109 70d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 70d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $109 75d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 99¢ $109 75d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $109 76d
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 77d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $109 80d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $109 80d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $109 88d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $109 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records