Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4cb3…9e69 sports 82 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$127 (+3%) realized +$130 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%42W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$44
14 days+$88
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$123
other 5% −$33
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +19.6% +8.2% 75% 75% +7.7%
≤30d 42 -6.8% -15.6% 48% 48% -19.6%
≤90d 81 +1.1% -8.6% 52% 52% -7.3%
all 81 +1.1% -8.6% 52% 52% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 52% -7.3%
10% -17.3% 52% -16.2%
15% -25.3% 52% -24.3%
20% -32.6% 49% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$43 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized+$130
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses42 / 39
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage58d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Leviatán Academy 79¢ 76¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 23 $101 +$38 +38%
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 19 $41 +$34 +84%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $51 −$50 -99%
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu Jun 19 $38 +$22 +57%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $61 +$39 +65%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $41 +$28 +70%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $40 −$40 -99%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $41 +$70 +172%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 14 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 13 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 13 $41 +$48 +118%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 12 $40 +$24 +60%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $81 −$80 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame Jun 11 $81 +$35 +43%
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) Jun 11 $41 +$39 +97%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta Jun 08 $81 −$80 -98%
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $41 −$40 -98%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5) Jun 08 $40 +$24 +60%
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & Jun 08 $41 +$62 +152%
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) Jun 07 $41 +$34 +83%
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Cheeseburger (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Jun 06 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Dplus vs T1 Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 05 $41 +$28 +70%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group S Jun 03 $41 −$40 -99%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars Academy vs KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas (BO5) - Circuit Jun 01 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: NRG (-2.5) vs LOUD (+2.5) Jun 01 $20 +$35 +173%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs NRG (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Q May 31 $41 +$35 +86%
Valorant: LOUD vs Sentinels (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifi May 31 $41 +$65 +158%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Gen.G Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup May 31 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Quali May 30 $61 −$60 -99%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs DRX (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Q May 30 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 29 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs MIBR (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas May 29 $41 +$67 +165%
Valorant: MIBR vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Americas Quali May 28 $41 +$35 +86%
Game Handicap: NS (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) May 27 $81 −$80 -99%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito De May 27 $41 −$40 -98%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy (BO5) - Circuito Desafiante May 26 $40 −$40 -99%
Map Handicap: LYON (-1.5) vs Grizzly Gang (+1.5) May 26 $41 +$32 +79%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA May 22 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qu May 22 $41 −$40 -99%
Valorant: FULL SENSE vs Gen.G Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacifi May 22 $40 −$40 -99%
LoL: KaBuM! Ilha das Lendas vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO5) - Circuit May 20 $41 −$40 -99%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 18 $41 +$48 +119%
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Fluxo W7M (+1.5) May 17 $40 +$25 +63%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs LOUD (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playoffs May 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs KRÜ Esports (+1.5) May 16 $41 +$62 +152%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map Handicap: LEV (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY Leviatán Academy 79¢ $101 1h
Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) BUY BESTIA 72¢ $101 2d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $51 5d
Valorant: X-CAST vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY DRX Academy 54¢ $41 5d
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu BUY LAZER 63¢ $38 6d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 60¢ $61 9d
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 64¢ $40 9d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Top Esports Challenger 58¢ $41 9d
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS (BO5) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY RED Canids 57¢ $41 10d
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $41 10d
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Cloud9 55¢ $41 11d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & SELL LOS 100¢ $89 11d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY LOS 45¢ $41 11d
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) BUY G2 Esports 55¢ $81 12d
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali BUY LOS 62¢ $40 13d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame SELL RED Canids 100¢ $116 13d
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids (BO3) - Esports World Cup South Ame BUY RED Canids 69¢ $81 13d
Game Handicap: LOS (-1.5) vs paiN Gaming (+1.5) BUY LOS 50¢ $41 13d
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 53¢ $41 13d
LoL: Fluxo W7M vs LOUD (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM BUY Fluxo W7M 45¢ $41 14d
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Saigon Dino (BO3) - Asia Masters Group C BUY Saigon Dino 31¢ $41 14d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY NRG 36¢ $41 16d
Map Handicap: NRG (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY NRG 33¢ $20 16d
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Sta BUY NRG 58¢ $41 16d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY FUT Esports 36¢ $41 16d
Game Handicap: RED (-1.5) vs Leviatan Esports (+1.5) BUY RED Canids 62¢ $40 17d
LoL: LOUD vs Vivo Keyd Stars (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & BUY Vivo Keyd Stars 39¢ $41 17d
Game Handicap: TSW (-1.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+1.5) BUY Team Secret Whales 54¢ $41 17d
LoL: FURIA Esports vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs BUY LOS 34¢ $41 18d
Overwatch: Poker Face vs Cheeseburger (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group BUY Poker Face 39¢ $41 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.58 · official $96.58 (match) · 129 history records