Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:21:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4C 0x4cb4…41d7 crypto 616 markets active 1h ago coverage 61d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-4%) realized −$120 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%321W / 296L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day20.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$22
7 days−$18
14 days−$8
30 days−$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$100
other 20% −$5
weather 2% −$14
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -2.2% -11.5% 57% 57% -27.9%
≤30d 164 -4.1% -13.2% 56% 55% -15.7%
≤90d 617 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 50% -13.6%
all 617 -2.1% -11.4% 52% 50% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 50% -13.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 49% -21.9%
15% -27.6% 48% -29.4%
20% -34.7% 47% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

61d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$120
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses321 / 296
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)617 / 616
History coverage61d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day20.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 617 Trades
no open positions (238 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +101%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$1 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 +$2 +116%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $3 −$3 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -97%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +45%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +68%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +53%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$2 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$3 +164%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 09 $2 +$2 +65%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +53%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$2 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $3 +$1 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +58%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$2 +75%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +62%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +62%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 08 $3 +$1 +56%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +58%
XRP Up or Down - June 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -15%
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$3 +164%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +183%
BNB Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 04 $2 +$3 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 4h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 7h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 16h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $2 25h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $3 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 4d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 5d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 5d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $4 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $0 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 6d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1481 history records