Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T09:13:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cb5…b536 politics 152 markets active 1d ago coverage 543d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ Covers last 542d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$17,143 (+2%) realized +$25,616 · open −$8,473
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%90W / 44L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,778per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$182,212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 543d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$19,248
politics 16% −$68,145
world 16% −$57,187
economics 14% +$39,003
crypto 5% +$12,318
tech 5% +$1,236
sports 0% −$37
culture 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -80.4% -82.3% 12% 6% -92.5%
≤30d 20 -81.1% -82.9% 10% 5% -92.6%
≤90d 26 -68.7% -71.6% 23% 4% -68.4%
all 134 +36.0% +23.1% 67% 44% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +23.1% 44% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here +11.3% 28% -23.0%
15% +0.5% 20% -30.5%
20% -9.3% 16% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -65% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$4,794) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +80% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
18.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,525 vs −$4,145 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

543d coverage
Net worth$182,212
Realized+$25,616
Unrealized−$8,473
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses90 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Open positions18
Markets (closed)134 / 152
History coverage543d ⚠
Avg bet$6,778
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 79¢ $100,173 $89,123 −$11,050 (-11%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 87¢ 92¢ $35,660 $37,515 +$1,855 (+5%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 81¢ 78¢ $15,726 $15,129 −$597 (-4%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $7,054 $7,805 +$751 (+11%)
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 11¢ $8,901 $7,485 −$1,416 (-16%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5,070 $6,565 +$1,495 (+29%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 74¢ 81¢ $4,070 $4,482 +$412 (+10%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2,671 $3,047 +$377 (+14%)
Prince Andrew sentenced to prison? No 87¢ 93¢ $2,610 $2,790 +$180 (+7%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 53¢ 56¢ $2,251 $2,418 +$167 (+7%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 86¢ 92¢ $1,695 $1,804 +$109 (+6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $1,891 $1,491 −$400 (-21%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1,675 $1,060 −$615 (-37%)
Cilia Flores released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 64¢ 82¢ $355 $456 +$101 (+28%)
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $425 $423 −$2 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $234 $350 +$116 (+50%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 81¢ 94¢ $147 $171 +$24 (+16%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? No 76¢ 98¢ $76 $98 +$22 (+29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk be named in newly released Epstein files? Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" during the State of the Union address? Jun 28 $6 −$6 -100%
Men's Final - Canada vs. USA Jun 28 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Zootopia 2 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025? Jun 28 $464 −$464 -100%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 9? Jun 28 $622 −$622 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31? Jun 28 $540 −$540 -100%
Will Pope Leo XIV be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Jun 28 $625 −$625 -100%
Will Meteora be accused of insider trading? Jun 28 $1,343 −$1,343 -100%
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28? Jun 28 $5,168 −$5,168 -100%
Will Trump pardon Changpeng Zhao in 2025? Jun 28 $5,487 −$5,487 -100%
Will Hades II win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards? Jun 28 $345 −$345 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Jun 28 $20,547 −$20,547 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Jun 28 $34,722 −$34,722 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $160 −$160 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $2,415 +$2,978 +123%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 24 $606 +$60 +10%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $398 −$250 -63%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $528 −$488 -92%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 04 $2,540 −$2,520 -99%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $396 −$396 -100%
Russian strike on a NATO member by March 31? Apr 22 $875 +$61 +7%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 22 $2,883 +$117 +4%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 22 $5,221 +$442 +8%
US strike on Colombia by March 31? Apr 22 $19,669 +$1,704 +9%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Apr 21 $1,315 −$1,211 -92%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 22 $8,078 +$3,943 +49%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 08 $1,564 +$136 +9%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Mar 02 $8 +$2 +24%
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 02 $152 +$33 +22%
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" during the State of the Union address Feb 26 $1 +$4 +257%
Will Trump say "Japan" during the State of the Union address? Feb 26 $90 +$110 +122%
Will Trump say "Greenland" during the State of the Union address? Feb 26 $104 +$296 +285%
Will Sinners win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 10 $46 −$15 -33%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Feb 10 $4,115 +$189 +5%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 10 $7,103 +$478 +7%
US strike on Cuba by January 31? Feb 05 $2,748 +$85 +3%
Nothing Ever Happens: January Feb 02 $477 +$423 +89%
US strikes Iran by January 30, 2026? Feb 02 $951 +$58 +6%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $1,299 +$159 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week Feb 02 $1,837 +$182 +10%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $4,319 +$325 +8%
US strike on Colombia by January 31? Feb 02 $24,755 +$1,198 +5%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 29 $70,854 +$20,512 +29%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Jan 22 $264 −$254 -96%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 17? Jan 20 $548 +$82 +15%
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10? Jan 14 $5,412 +$314 +6%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 11 $5,328 +$134 +2%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31? Jan 08 $1,446 −$473 -33%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $5,956 +$62 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 24h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $600 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 5d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $60 5d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 74¢ $4,123 5d
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $428 6d
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY No 92¢ $327 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2,125 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $60 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $26 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $98 8d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182,212.33 · official $182,213.30 (match) · 3500 history records