Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:21:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4C 0x4cb7…3644 crypto 1066 markets active 0h ago coverage 37d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d only
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$14,356 (-7%) realized −$14,276 · open −$80
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%594W / 470L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$190per market
Trades / day76.3pace
Fees−$926est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,792
7 days−$1,425
14 days−$1,420
30 days−$7,940
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$11,924
other 32% +$6,972
crypto 28% −$4,886
world 7% +$1,292
politics 0% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 224 -10.3% -18.8% 54% 49% -16.6%
≤30d 844 -7.6% -16.4% 55% 49% -13.5%
≤90d 1064 -6.9% -15.8% 56% 50% -13.3%
all 1064 -6.9% -15.8% 56% 50% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 50% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -23.8% 42% -21.6%
15% -31.2% 34% -29.2%
20% -38.0% 26% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$139 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$159
Realized−$14,276
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses594 / 470
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$926
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1064 / 1066
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$190
Trades / day76.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1064 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Qinwen Zheng 38¢ 42¢ $140 $156 +$17 (+12%)
Grass Court Championships, Qualification: Katerina Siniakova vs Yue Yuan Yue Yuan 17¢ 0¢ $100 $3 −$97 (-97%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $107 +$32 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $91 −$91 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $101 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $18 −$16 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$28 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $59 −$25 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $72 +$7 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $23 +$14 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$10 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $34 +$24 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $102 +$50 +49%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $38 +$26 +68%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$94 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $32 −$29 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $24 +$8 +33%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $51 −$4 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $51 +$23 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 −$93 -92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 −$82 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $35 +$22 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $23 +$21 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $54 +$20 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +93%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $252 +$93 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$20 +95%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $102 +$109 +107%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Qinwen Zheng 38¢ $142 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $139 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 27m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 56¢ $99 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $40 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $51 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET SELL Down 23¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $15 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $152 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $102 3h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 78¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $115 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $159.22 · official $159.22 (match) · 3500 history records