Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:35:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cb7…f765 other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$106 (-25%) realized −$144 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +19% what you keep after slip
Net edge+19%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day11.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$143
sports 38% +$90
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)+29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +42.9% +29.3% 28% 28% -35.0%
≤30d 25 +42.9% +29.3% 28% 28% -35.0%
≤90d 25 +42.9% +29.3% 28% 28% -35.0%
all 25 +42.9% +29.3% 28% 28% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +29.3% 28% -35.0%
10% +17.0% 28% -41.2%
15% +5.7% 28% -46.9%
20% -4.7% 28% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +100% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$15 · ×1.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$144
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions13
Markets (closed)25 / 38
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day11.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? Yes 33¢ 100¢ $10 $30 +$20 (+203%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Yes 17¢ 50¢ $10 $29 +$19 (+191%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? No 40¢ 80¢ $10 $20 +$10 (+101%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-25%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $2 −$3 (-62%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $144 −$143 -99%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +89%
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$19 +183%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$28 +276%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 13 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$95 +1843%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 3 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $4 −$4 -98%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 73¢ $70 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 81¢ $74 3h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $10 3h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 30¢ $10 6h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $5 6h
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes $1 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $15 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Netherlands O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 30¢ $20 24h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Under 40¢ $5 24h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Team to Take First Corner BUY Curaçao 17¢ $5 27h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 37¢ $10 29h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 46¢ $10 29h
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur BUY Alex de Minaur 48¢ $10 30h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $5 31h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Over 35¢ $10 38h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 38h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 40¢ $10 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 39h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 46h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 47h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 47h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 2d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Curacao advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $5 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2d
Spread: Scotland (-2.5) BUY Scotland 21¢ $7 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 39¢ $5 2d
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) BUY Morocco $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.33 · official $123.33 (match) · 50 history records