Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:57:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4C 0x4cbb…02a3 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$95 (+0%) realized +$149 · open −$54
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate59%65W / 45L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$378per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$1,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$65
7 days+$52
14 days−$442
30 days−$1,472
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 58% −$3,478
crypto 16% −$140
sports 15% +$1,255
politics 11% +$2,715
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -19.9% -27.5% 56% 56% -8.7%
≤30d 18 -19.2% -26.9% 44% 44% -28.3%
≤90d 60 -2.4% -11.7% 53% 53% -9.8%
all 110 +0.6% -8.9% 59% 50% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 50% -8.7%
10% -17.7% 45% -17.4%
15% -25.6% 38% -25.4%
20% -32.9% 31% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$181 vs −$252 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$1,017
Realized+$149
Unrealized−$54
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses65 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions2
Markets (closed)110 / 116
History coverage605d
Avg bet$378
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $578 $536 −$42 (-7%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $493 $481 −$12 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $843 +$91 +11%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $537 +$333 +62%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,206 −$1,200 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,505 +$238 +16%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,070 +$636 +60%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $504 −$500 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +67%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 28 $847 −$832 -98%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $51 −$50 -99%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 27 $81 −$80 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $20 +$50 +242%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 27 $51 +$63 +124%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $51 +$29 +57%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $51 +$42 +83%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 - Game 4 Winner May 25 $51 +$28 +55%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 25 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $101 +$46 +46%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 +$28 +93%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$48 +48%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $489 +$194 +40%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $10 −$1 -14%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $203 −$200 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-05-22? May 23 $505 +$264 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 22 $82 −$80 -98%
Valorant: T1 vs Nongshim RedForce (BO3) - Esports World Cup Pacific Qu May 22 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $20 −$20 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qual May 21 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20? May 21 $502 +$298 +60%
AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC: Both Teams to Score May 20 $202 +$115 +57%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - Esports World Cup Korea Q May 19 $51 +$52 +102%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-18? May 19 $785 +$93 +12%
LoL: T1 vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $51 +$42 +83%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $101 +$34 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $203 +$122 +60%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $202 +$67 +33%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $26 +$55 +216%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $499 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY 69¢ $434 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 90¢ $843 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 33h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY 61¢ $537 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,206 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,505 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $178 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $1,070 8d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Eng BUY 18¢ $26 8d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? AND Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia BUY 2¢ $26 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $504 8d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 47¢ $102 8d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $338 28d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 29d
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? BUY No 56¢ $51 29d
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-05-27? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 29d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 42¢ $31 29d
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 28¢ $102 29d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 44¢ $51 30d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY Gen.G 29¢ $20 30d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 44¢ $51 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 63¢ $51 31d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Knicks 54¢ $51 31d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $411 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,016.92 · official $1,446.80 · 256 history records