Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:21:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cbb…a912 politics 152 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,185 (+0%) realized +$1,186 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate19%28W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$1,758per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$1,258now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$31
14 days−$226
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$457
politics 35% −$114
sports 15% +$1,742
world 4% −$12
culture 3% −$11
economics 1% −$3
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 43 -4.6% -13.7% 9% 5% -9.8%
≤90d 111 -7.3% -16.2% 13% 7% -9.2%
all 151 -1.4% -10.8% 19% 13% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 13% -9.1%
10% -19.3% 13% -17.8%
15% -27.1% 11% -25.8%
20% -34.3% 7% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,544) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$12 · ×7.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.75 per $1 lost it wins $1.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$1,258
Realized+$1,186
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses28 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)151 / 152
History coverage121d
Avg bet$1,758
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 151 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,259 $1,258 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 16 $2,979 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $2,585 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $5,528 −$7 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $222 $0 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $1,502 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $2,377 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5,529 −$6 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $1,321 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $7,032 −$8 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 08 $2,322 −$4 -0%
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 08 $1,447 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $1,618 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $1,619 −$2 -0%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,723 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $5,503 −$7 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $7,973 −$9 -0%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $64 −$64 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $2,962 −$5 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $5,200 −$7 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $5,439 −$5 -0%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5) Jun 02 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $4,497 −$5 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 02 $1,105 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,140 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $2,544 −$3 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 26 $1,143 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,807 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $2,727 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 25 $1,672 −$2 -0%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,277 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengal May 23 $49 +$54 +109%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 22 $67 +$65 +97%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,098 −$2 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $1,538 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? May 20 $1,470 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $3,256 −$4 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? May 19 $1,524 −$3 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 10 $1,170 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 10 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,593 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $6,346 −$7 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,592 −$3 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $3,373 −$4 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,259 1h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,579 3h
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,581 4h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,246 6h
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,248 8h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,288 24h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,290 25h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,362 30h
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,364 32h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,269 2d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,271 2d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,500 5d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,502 5d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,200 5d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,202 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,280 5d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,281 5d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,319 6d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $1,321 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,069 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,071 6d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $32 7d
Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $190 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,580 7d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,582 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,254 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,256 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,446 8d
Will Ayelet Shaked be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,447 8d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $1,616 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,258.29 · official $1,258.29 (match) · 519 history records