Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:49:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cbe…100a world 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10,102 (-11%) realized −$12,786 · open +$2,684
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate54%20W / 17L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,914per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$18,295now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$120
7 days−$340
14 days−$170
30 days−$269
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$290
other 12% −$60
politics 6% +$94
crypto 2% −$448
tech 1% −$15
finance 1% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -15.8% -23.8% 32% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 27 -9.1% -17.7% 48% 19% -9.0%
≤90d 37 -10.1% -18.7% 54% 30% -12.8%
all 37 -10.1% -18.7% 54% 30% -12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 30% -12.8%
10% -26.5% 11% -21.1%
15% -33.6% 5% -28.8%
20% -40.1% 5% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$1,041) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$224 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$18,295
Realized−$12,786
Unrealized+$2,684
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses20 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Open positions12
Markets (closed)37 / 49
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1,914
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 34¢ 40¢ $15,376 $18,084 +$2,708 (+18%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 81¢ $216 $193 −$23 (-11%)
Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 95¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 80¢ 84¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+4%)
Will Hamas agree to disarm by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 49¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-29%)
Will China invades Taiwan before GTA VI? No 49¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? No 95¢ 94¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? No 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $2,750 −$30 -1%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Jun 15 $1,039 −$8 -1%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,249 −$15 -1%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Jun 15 $986 −$3 -0%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Jun 15 $99 +$8 +8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $1,088 +$9 +1%
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 15 $195 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $894 −$18 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $892 +$2 +0%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $954 −$2 -0%
Will Trump be impeached by end of 2026? Jun 15 $998 −$20 -2%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 15 $991 +$12 +1%
Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $1,043 −$14 -1%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 15 $1,475 +$50 +3%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $1,689 −$48 -3%
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? Jun 15 $2,584 −$42 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $763 −$73 -10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $400 −$91 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $835 −$55 -7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $200 +$15 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $182 +$154 +85%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 01 $677 +$64 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,041 +$139 +13%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $199 +$26 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 01 $494 +$70 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $248 +$32 +13%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 24 $736 −$431 -59%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 13 $2,008 +$107 +5%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $451 −$387 -86%
Will Iran strike Bahrain by April 30, 2026? May 04 $8 +$2 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $332 +$68 +20%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 27, 2026? Apr 28 $137 +$73 +54%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $328 +$67 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 27 $6,932 −$2,134 -31%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $1,423 −$441 -31%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $988 +$179 +18%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 23 $10 +$2 +24%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 2m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 44m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 46m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 52m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $41 54m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $31 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $36 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $173 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $75 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $123 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $184 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1,070 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $398 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $3 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $0 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $324 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $380 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,294.64 · official $18,292.95 (match) · 823 history records