Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4C 0x4cbe…5fd4 other 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 385d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$12,860 (+170%) realized +$12,939 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +182% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +130% what you keep after slip
Net edge+130%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%1W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,893per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$361now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 385d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 94% +$12,939
other 6% −$79
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+154.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 1 +181.8% +154.9% 100% 100% +154.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +154.9% 100% +154.9%
10% ← realistic here +130.5% 100% +130.5%
15% +108.3% 100% +108.3%
20% +87.8% 100% +87.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +182% · $-wt +182% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12,939 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

385d coverage
Net worth$361
Realized+$12,939
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1 / 0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1 / 4
History coverage385d
Avg bet$1,893
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $195 $181 −$15 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $149 $105 −$44 (-30%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $96 $76 −$20 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $7,119 +$12,939 +182%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $361.06 · official $361.06 (match) · 32 history records