Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4C 0x4cbf…c5ad other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 751d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$159 (-6%) realized −$13 · open −$146
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$202
14 days+$186
30 days+$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$134
sports 27% −$125
politics 3% −$39
crypto 3% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -65.9% -69.2% 22% 22% +12.0%
≤30d 13 -49.1% -54.0% 31% 31% +6.6%
≤90d 13 -49.1% -54.0% 31% 31% +6.6%
all 25 -21.5% -29.0% 28% 28% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 28% -16.9%
10% -35.8% 24% -24.9%
15% -42.0% 24% -32.1%
20% -47.7% 20% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -49% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$77 vs −$40 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

751d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$146
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage751d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 11¢ $210 $61 −$150 (-71%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $15 +$6 (+57%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? Jun 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $8 −$8 -98%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$9 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $349 +$174 +50%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $28 −$27 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $336 +$191 +57%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 +$6 +74%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $93 +$74 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Dec 08 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Dec 08 $32 +$4 +12%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Dec 08 $70 −$39 -55%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $107 −$107 -100%
Linea airdrop in Q3 2025? Sep 03 $152 −$14 -9%
Linea airdrop in Q1 2025? Mar 22 $185 −$103 -56%
Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025? Feb 04 $373 −$69 -18%
Magic vs. Raptors Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Nets vs. Bucks Jan 03 $2 +$13 +669%
Celtics vs. Timberwolves Jan 03 $2 −$2 -100%
zkSync airdrop by June 30? Jun 10 $136 +$80 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $214 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes $10 3d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $522 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $349 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 27¢ $100 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes $28 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 77¢ $527 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $334 7d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes $87 7d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $10 8d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $13 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $43 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $5 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $119 11d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $7 11d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $93 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $35 199d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 199d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $32 199d
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? SELL No 12¢ $32 199d
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? BUY No 27¢ $70 199d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 41¢ $91 228d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.97 · official $83.97 (match) · 73 history records